New polls out from Rasmussen and Gallup agree, support for gun control has hit a new low. Gallup find that just 44% support stricter gun laws; Rasmussen finds just 39%.
In addition, Gallup finds that just 28% believe handguns should be banned, also a historic low. (It was 60% in 1960.) Rasmussen poses the question differently, and finds that 71% believe the Constitution guarantees average citizens the right to own a gun. Only 13% say it does not.
Our troops and our NATO allies are performing heroically in Afghanistan, but I have argued for years that we lack the resources to finish the job because of our commitment to Iraq. That’s what the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said earlier this month. And that’s why, as President, I will make the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban the top priority that it should be. This is a war that we have to win.
This is the central front in the war on terrorism. This is where the Taliban is gaining strength and launching new attacks, including one that just took the life of ten French soldiers. This is where Osama bin Laden and the same terrorists who killed nearly 3,000 Americans on our own soil are hiding and plotting seven years after 9/11. This is a war that we have to win.
Abroad, we need a new direction that ends the war in Iraq, focuses on the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban, and restores strong alliances and tough American diplomacy.
President Obama’s national security team is moving to reframe its war strategy by emphasizing the campaign against Al Qaeda in Pakistan while arguing that the Taliban in Afghanistan do not pose a direct threat to the United States, officials said Wednesday.
What has changed? Only that President Obama would now have to risk something to deal with the Taliban. He could hardly find a clearer way to project weakness.
I wouldn’t say that the selection of Barack Obama for the peace prize demeans the prize. The recent selections of Kofi Annan, Jimmy Carter, Mohammed ElBaradei, and Al Gore already did that. (Yasser Arafat’s selection seemed reasonable at the time in 1994.) But by giving the award without even a plausible citation of accomplishment, they make themselves a laughingstock.
What I like about this is it is now unarguable that the peace prize is awarded as a political endorsement. It’s been clear to me since Carter’s selection in 2002, but in that case he had a record that could be cited (Camp David, Habitat for Humanity). Obama won it for rhetoric alone. Now, when we dismiss the awards to Gore, ElBaradei, etc., no one can argue.
By the way, I plan to do some seriously awesome type theory over the next decade. How about giving me my Turing Award now?
Recall that George W. Bush’s approval rating on Sept. 10, 2001, was about 40 percent. After 9/11, it quickly climbed to 93 percent.
Really? In what poll? Peter Wehner points out that Gallup had President Bush at 51% on September 10, 2001. Maybe he’s referring to some long-forgotten Newsweek poll? Newsweek’s polling is by far the worst (as judged by its election predictions), so it’s plausible that it could have been an 11-point outlier.
ASIDE: This doesn’t really undermine Zakaria’s point, which is the existence of a rally effect, but he still should get the facts right.
Clark Hoyt, the NYT’s ombudsman, dedicates his latest column to defending his paper’s treatment (and, largely, non-treatment) of the ACORN scandal. It’s standard fare from Hoyt so I won’t bother unpacking it. But, he does make one outright error:
Conservatives have accused Acorn of voter fraud, but it has actually been charged with fraudulent registration, not stuffing ballot boxes. Prosecutors have said that Acorn workers were not trying to influence elections but were trying to get paid for work they didn’t do by writing fake names on registration forms.
Oh really? What about the case of Darnell Nash of Ohio? ACORN helped to register him nine times under various names, and last August he pled guilty to casting a fraudulent ballot. There’s also the case in Troy, New York, where an ACORN-linked organization forged dozens of absentee ballots.
That’s two one documented cases, but even setting those aside, Hoyt’s contention is laughable. In 2008, ACORN submitted hundreds of thousands of fraudulent voter registrations. We’re supposed to believe that none of those were intended to become actual votes? Please.
UPDATE (11/23): Contrary to reports, Nash was not convicted of casting a fraudulent ballot. He was charged with doing so, but plea bargained it to fraudulent registration.
By a 55-32 margin, the public opposes the individual mandate to buy health insurance that forms the centerpiece of the Baucus bill, according to a new Rasmussen poll.
I noted earlier that while my state representative, Paul Costa (D), did not deign to reply to my email about CCAC trampling free speech, he did add me to his spam list. Now I’ve discovered that he doesn’t honor requests to be removed from the list either. What a jerk.
First of all, it’s not a bill. Amazingly, the Senate Finance Committee doesn’t actually deal with legislation, it deals with specifications that staffers turn into legislation after the committee has completed its work. As the CBO observes:
CBO and JCT’s analysis is preliminary in large part because the Chairman’s mark, as amended, has not yet been embodied in legislative language.
What the “bill” would do is establish a mandate on all Americans to acquire health coverage, at their own expense if necessary. It would include a steep fine on employers that do not offer health coverage, and on individuals who decline the health coverage offered by their employer. (This means that employers are given an incentive to offer the minimum plan, and employees are obligated to take it.)
The plan would also create “exchanges”, which really don’t have much to do with exchanging anything. Rather, they are vehicles for government subsidies. The exchanges would subsidize the purchase of insurance by low-income households.
The plan would create co-ops instead of a public option, but as I’ve noted, there’s no real difference between the two. Co-ops would eventually come to dominate the insurance landscape, and would be under effective government control, establishing a de facto single payer system. (Indeed, that is the whole point.) The CBO analysis largely ignores the co-ops though, concluding:
The proposed co-ops had very little effect on the estimates of total enrollment in the exchanges or federal costs because, as they are described in the specifications, they seem unlikely to establish a significant market presence in many areas of the country or to noticeably affect federal subsidy payments.
I wish I believed that.
The plan would be paid for by deep cuts in Medicare and a variety of new taxes, including a tax on the value of health insurance. (Remember when the Obama campaign savaged McCain for suggesting a tax on health insurance “for the very first time”?) The tax would apply to health insurance over a certain ceiling, but that ceiling would increase more slowly than health care costs are likely to increase, so in time virtually all health insurance would be taxed.
The plan is also paid for by unspecified savings that would be uncovered by a new Medicare Commission. Bizarrely, the CBO accepted this, and assumes that the commission would somehow find $22 billion in additional Medicare cuts.
Finally, the plan assumes a variety of cost-cutting measures will be carried out that almost certainly will not be. As the analysis notes:
These projections assume that the proposals are enacted and remain unchanged throughout the next two decades, which is often not the case for major legislation. For example, the sustainable growth rate (SGR) mechanism governing Medicare’s payments to physicians has frequently been modified (either through legislation or administrative action) to avoid reductions in those payments. . . The long-term budgetary impact could be quite different if those provisions were ultimately changed or not fully implemented.
Significantly, important provisions in the plan change their behavior in 2019, which not-so-coincidentally is the end of the period that the CBO analyzes. The CBO analysis therefore tells us nothing whatsoever about the impact of the legislation beyond the 10-year window, even setting aside the inherent uncertainties in long-term prediction. As the CBO notes:
Many Members have requested CBO analyses of the long-term budgetary impact of broad changes in the nation’s health care and health insurance systems. However, a detailed year-by-year projection, like those that CBO prepares for the 10-year budget window, would not be meaningful because the uncertainties involved are simply too great.
The CBO estimates that the plan would cut the number of non-elderly uninsured roughly in half, leaving 25 million without coverage.
In total, assuming all the budgeted savings take place that surely will not, the plan would cost $904 billion over ten years ($829 for the coverage provisions, and another $75 billion for various Medicare provisions), which would be paid for by $507 billion in new taxes and $329 billion in Medicare cuts.
As always, the CBO analysis is static, meaning that it does not take into account the deleterious effects that the plan would have on the economy.
Of course, the CBO analysis has nothing to say about the plan’s innovation-stifling effects, or about the plan’s deleterious effects on the quality of care in general.
UPDATE: Under realistic assumptions and counting off-budget items, the plan’s real cost is over $2 trillion. (Via Instapundit.)
The White House’s report on U.S. policy Afghanistan and Pakistan concludes:
There are no quick fixes to achieve U.S. national security interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The danger of failure is real and the implications are grave. In 2009-2010 the Taliban’s momentum must be reversed in Afghanistan and the international community must work with Pakistan to disrupt the threats to security along Pakistan’s western border.
This new strategy of focusing on our core goal – to disrupt, dismantle, and eventually destroy extremists and their safe havens within both nations, although with different tactics – will require immediate action, sustained commitment, and substantial resources. The United States is committed to working with our partners in the region and the international community to address this challenging but essential security goal.
“Immediate action, sustained commitment, and substantial resources.” Unless it’s just too hard:
“It was easy to say, ‘Hey, I support COIN,’ because nobody had done the assessment of what it would really take, and nobody had thought through whether we want to do what it takes,” said one senior civilian administration official who participated in the review, using the shorthand for counterinsurgency.
The failure to reach a shared understanding of the resources required to execute the strategy has complicated the White House’s response to the grim assessment of the war by the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, forcing the president to decide, in effect, what his administration really meant when it endorsed a counterinsurgency plan. Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal’s follow-up request for more forces, which presents a range of options but makes clear that the best chance of achieving the administration’s goals requires an additional 40,000 U.S. troops on top of the 68,000 who are already there, has given senior members of Obama’s national security team “a case of sticker shock,” the administration official said.
Geez. There was a request for 30,000 more troops already on the table, so how could requesting 40,000 give them “sticker shock”? These guys are deeply, deeply unserious.
Q: In a letter to senators last week the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops said that, I’m quoting, ‘So far the health-reform bills considered in committee, including the new Senate Finance Committee bill, have not met the president’s challenge of barring the use of federal dollars for abortion.’
Is that statement wrong?
GIBBS: Well, I don’t want to get me into trouble at church, but I would mention there’s a law that precludes the use of federal funds for abortion. That isn’t going to be changed in these health care bills.
Q: There have been several amendments that would explicitly bar [federal funding for] abortions that were rejected–
GIBBS: Again, there’s a fairly well-documented federal law that prevents it.
I wish. I’d like to hear Gibbs cite the “fairly well-documented” law of which he speaks. He can’t, because there is no such law.
The Hyde Amendment bars Medicaid from spending money on abortion. It does not apply magically to other legislation. Consequently, similar amendments have been attached to other spending bills. But, the health care bill contains no such provision. In fact, the Senate Finance Committee voted one down.
For the second time this year, Somali pirates accidentally attack a French navy ship. I suppose if they were smart, they’d be in a different line of work.
I’m disappointed in Obama, too. I expected him to be a liberal. I expected to disagree with him on most issues. But I hoped that either good government (“goo-goo”) liberalism or raw political calculus (like the Republicans in 1995) would lead him to keep some of his non-ideological promises, like on earmarks, transparency, and so on. I even hoped, consistent with his promise of a net spending cut, that he’d show more fiscal responsibility than Bush did, which isn’t hard to do; surely there are government programs out there that don’t serve liberal ideological ends and could be cut. He lost whatever good will or benefit-of-the-doubt I was inclined to give him by neglecting, backtracking, or going back on his word on all these issues.
The Obama administration has treated Obama’s promise of changing the way business is done in DC as a distraction from his legislative agenda. I suspect they’ll come to regret that perspective.
I agree, but I’d add a more important example. I expected that he would keep his central national-security pledge, to prosecute the war in Afghanistan. Like the others that Bernstein mentions, that pledge is being abandoned due to domestic political calculations. In the long run, failure in Afghanistan will hurt us much more than his failure to establish transparency and reform earmarks.
This YouTube video making the rounds purports to catch Michelle Obama in a lie:
I doubt it. All this shows for sure is that she was wrong. Childhood memories are notoriously unreliable and are often created later in life. I’m sure that’s what happened here, since this is hardly something one would lie about.
We would do well to remember that false statements are not necessarily lies. One can be honest and still be mistaken.
POSTSCRIPT: Yes, I know the other side does it all the time. That’s beside the point.
Chris Good, writing in the Atlantic, says public opinion is mixed on health care reform:
Not to beat a dead horse, the polling doesn’t say Americans oppose Democratic reforms. At best, we can say it’s a mixed picture. Of the most recent, reliable, non-partisan major polls–a Sept. 12 Washington Post/ABC survey, an Economist/YouGov survey released Sept. 15, and a Sept. 25 NY Times/CBS poll–only the first shows Americans opposed to Democratic plans (48 percent to 52 percent); the other two show Americans in favor, though NY Times/CBS found that 46 percent say they don’t know enough to decide.
Oh really? As Mickey Kaus points out, Good ignores the two most most recent Economist/YouGov polls, both of which have majorities opposed. So of the three polls that Good arbitrarily selects, two actually show the public opposed. The other is worthless, bizarrely obtaining 46% without an opinion.
But let’s not restrict ourselves to those three, particularly since the two best polling outfits today are Rasmussen and Pew. Pollster.com (again via Kaus) has a summary of recent polling on health care reform. Choosing the latest poll from each outfit and going back as far as July, we obtain the following results:
Plurality supporting: CBS/NYT (30-23, with 46% no opinion), Harris (49-41, an internet poll), Bloomberg (48-42, taken during the post-speech bounce), CNN (51-46, bounce).
So we have twelve polls that show the public opposed. On the supporting side, all we have are two polls from during the bounce (Ramussen had 51-46 support at the time), an internet poll, and the wierdo CBS/NYT poll. Here’s a chart:
Good notwithstanding, the polling clearly does say that the public opposes Democratic health care “reforms”.
The NYT silently replaced its original piece on President Obama’s Olympic failure with a new one, rewritten to soften its implied criticism and remove some facts unfavorable to the administration.
Mr. Obama was in Copenhagen for just five hours and did not stay for the vote. He learned Chicago lost in the first round while watching a CNN transmission whose signal cut in and out as Air Force One passed over Cabot Strait between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia.
A sense of stunned bewilderment suffused Air Force One and the White House. Only after the defeat did many advisers ask questions about the byzantine politics of the Olympic committee. Valerie Jarrett, the president’s senior adviser and a Chicago booster who persuaded him to make the trip while at the United Nations last week, had repeatedly compared the contest to the Iowa caucuses.
But officials said the administration did not independently verify Chicago’s chances, relying instead on the Chicago 2016 committee assertions that the city had enough support to finish in the top two. Mr. Obama, Michelle Obama, Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Ms. Jarrett worked the phones in recent weeks without coming away with a sense of how behind Chicago really was.
California law bars municipalities from rewarding operators of red-light cameras based on the amount of revenue they extract from motorists. Over fifty municipalities have tried to finesse that rule with a billing scheme called “cost-neutrality”, in which a supposedly fixed fee is reduced if insufficient revenue is generated to cover it. In essence, the scheme gives the operator a cut of the revenue up to some ceiling.
The scheme was ruled illegal in a case last December, but due to some legal issue I don’t understand, it didn’t establish a precedent. Now a second California court has ruled the same way. The opinion, quoted in its entirety, reads:
“REVERSED”
I think there’s only way to set up a red-light camera system that avoids their corrupt incentives: to forbid the authority that institutes the cameras from receiving any of the revenue. The natural way to do this is to require that all the revenue goes to the state. If red-light cameras were really about safety, municipalities would have no problem with such a rule.
This was attempted in Washington’s proposition I-985. Unfortunately, I-985 failed (it would have done a lot more than just reform red-light cameras), but it elicited some revealing comments from local officials, who were very opposed to it.
Chicago is lucky to have missed out on the disruption and expense of the Olympics. Having just experienced three days of disruption for the G-20 (thanks Mr. President!), I can only imagine what two weeks of the Olympics would be like.
As far as the expense: $4.8 billion was the official estimate, which was complete crap. London is looking at significant overruns over its £9.3 billion budget (that’s $14.8 billion!) The City of Chicago would be on the hook for any overruns, having signed an unlimited financial guarantee. The bid itself cost $100 million. (Balanced against the cost would be a benefit as small as $4.4 billion by one independent estimate, and as large as $19.2 billion according to its proponents.)
Accordingly, the public soured on the bid. A recent poll showed Chicagoans evenly divided on whether to hold the Olympics, but 84% agreed that public money should not be spent. (Which, without a doubt, would absolutely have happened.)
Non-Chicagoans can be happy too, because a Chicago Olympics would also have cost billions in federal dollars. (This was even used as an argument to Chicagoans in favor of the games.)
Chicago is a fine city and a place that I always enjoy visiting. It deserves better than to have the Olympics foisted upon it. What I cannot understand is why President Obama is joining in with the effort to bring this scourge to his home town. The Olympics after all, is a festival of bureaucratic arrogance, financial irresponsibility, internationalist vacuity, and politically correct blather.
Oh . . .
UPDATE: More here. London’s costs may reach $40 billion. Athens spent three times their projected amount. Montreal just finished paying off the 1976 summer games in 2006! (Via Instapundit.)
This time Irish voters did as they were told. Sigh. Background here.
This is utterly shameful. An entire continent has given up their sovereignty, and in only one country did the public even get a chance to vote on it. That allowed the rest of Europe to put enormous pressure on Ireland as the sole holdout, threatening them with isolation if they dared obstruct integration again. Suffering greatly from the recession, the Irish public decided they didn’t dare.
What’s with the sudden rash of prominent liberals calling for the annihilation of conservatives?
First you have Thomas Friedman calling for China-style autocracy so that Republicans cannot obstruct the Democratic agenda. He didn’t explicitly call for conservatives to be killed, but how exactly does he think that China’s “reasonably enlightened” autocrats deal with their opponents?
Now it’s Michael Moore. In his latest movie, he calls the elimination of capitalists, to the tune of the Soviet anthem in case anyone might miss the point:
The movie ends with Moore telling us, “Capitalism is evil, and you cannot regulate evil. You have to eliminate it.” Then he plays the bloodthirsty Soviet national anthem “The Internationale.”
A new Rasmussen poll shows that 63% believe that guaranteeing that no one will be forced to change their health coverage is more important than a public option. Only 29% take the opposite view. Also a majority believe (correctly) that they personally would be forced to change their health coverage if the Democrats’ health plan passes. It’s not hard to see why a majority oppose the plan.
POSTSCRIPT: President Obama has been trying hard to convince the public that no one will lose their existing coverage, much as he has been trying hard to convince the public that his plan will not cover illegal immigrants and will not result in “death panels”. In each case, the public simply does not believe him.
The Secretary of State acknowledges there was no coup in Honduras. The Law Library of Congress has published an analysis that concludes that Manuel Zelaya was ousted in a constitutional transfer of power. It was revealed over a week ago by the Miami Herald that Zelaya is not only a socialist wanna-be dictator, but a complete nutcase as well.
Nevertheless, there is no sign that the Obama administration and Congressional Democrats will step back in their support for an unconstitutional return of Zelaya to power. In the latest development, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) has blocked a Congressional fact-finding trip to Honduras led by Sen. Jim DeMint (D-SC). (DeMint will reportedly be going anyway.)
How can we explain this bizarre behavior? The Iranian regime really is illegitimate (even according to its own rules) and additionally is a threat to us, but that regime has our full recognition. On the other hand, Honduras has unbroken constitutional government and is entirely friendly, but we are working to isolate them. We won’t even approve a fact-finding trip!
At this point, it’s getting hard to deny the simplest explanation: The Democrats want Manuel Zelaya in power, regardless of any legal niceties, and regardless of the fact that he is crazy. What could be so special about Zelaya? I’m not aware of a single thing that could matter to us other than his ideology; Zelaya is an unabashed Chavista socialist.
I hate to think that our foreign policy in Central America is being built around expanding socialist autocracy, but it’s become hard to read this any other way.
I am delighted by the Roman Polanski controversy. Don’t get me wrong: I am horrified and disgusted by what the acclaimed director did — and admitted to — but there is an upside.
Just to recap, Polanski drugged a child put in his care for the purposes of a photo shoot. He tried to bully her into sex. She said no. He raped her anyway. He pleaded guilty to unlawful sexual intercourse but fled the country before sentencing, allegedly for fear the judge wouldn’t keep his end of the plea bargain. He spent the subsequent three decades living the life of a revered celebrity in Europe. He never returned to America because there was a warrant for his arrest. In a bit of ironic justice, he was apprehended en route to Zurich to receive a lifetime-achievement award. That ceremony will apparently go on without him.
So what do I like about the controversy? Well, for starters, that there is one at all. I think it is fascinating beyond words that this is open to “debate.”
He goes on to look at the shape of the controversy and concludes:
And that’s the main reason I am grateful for this controversy. It is a dye marker, “lighting up” a whole archipelago of morally wretched people. With their time, their money, and their craft, these very people routinely lecture America about what is right and wrong. It’s good to know that at the most fundamental level, they have no idea what they’re talking about.
The liberals who are suddenly concerned about the decline of civility in our body politic might want to take a look at this column, written by Garrison Keillor and published in the Chicago Tribune:
When an entire major party has excused itself from meaningful debate and [blah blah blah], one starts to wonder if the country wouldn’t be better off without them and if Republicans should be cut out of the health-care system entirely and simply provided with aspirin and hand sanitizer. Thirty-two percent of the population identifies with the GOP, and if we cut off health care to them, we could probably pay off the deficit in short order.
Not long ago, Thomas Friedman wrote in the New York Times that we would be better off under a China-style autocracy. I guess Keillor is just following that train of thought to its logical conclusion.
POSTSCRIPT: This doesn’t make me feel any better about putting liberals in charge of health care, by the way.
Even under normal circumstances, I wouldn’t buy a GM or Chrysler car, since they are — generally speaking — crap. But since the bailouts, I wouldn’t buy a GM or Chrysler car even if I were otherwise inclined to do so.
It seems that I’m not alone. GM and Chrysler’s sales are down dramatically since a year ago, GM’s by 45% and Chrysler’s by 42%. Meanwhile, Ford’s sales are down just 5%, which seems to indicate that this is not merely a function of the economic slowdown or the end of cash-for-clunkers.
There’s a very strange result in that new Fox News poll. On the question of Afghanistan, they found:
Do you support or oppose the U.S. military action in Afghanistan?
Support Oppose (Don't know)
29-30 Sep 09 64% 27 9
By comparison, two weeks ago they found:
Do you support or oppose the U.S. war in Afghanistan?
Support Oppose (Don't know)
15-16 Sep 09 46% 45 9
During the same time, there was only a one-point shift in the question of whether we should send more troops to Afghanistan, so I think we can rule out a large shift in public sentiment. The only other difference is the wording: two weeks ago they asked about the “war” in Afghanistan but this time they asked about the “military action” in Afghanistan.
So it seems that quite a lot of people’s opinion hinges on whether the action is called a war or not.
Some more interesting takeaways from the new Fox News poll, on domestic policy:
Two-thirds say that President Obama is proposing more government spending than we can afford.
The vast majority say the national debt is so large it is hurting the country, and that we should cut spending.
Two-thirds say that we should not raise the debt limit. (I’m pretty sure that most people don’t know what that means. I doubt that most would support a default on US treasuries.)
A majority of those who have heard of ACORN view it as a corrupt organization, including a plurality of Democrats.
The public is evenly divided on the question of whether Obama blames President Bush too often.
Independents are evenly divided on the question of whether Obama behaves more like he is a candidate on the campaign trail, or more like he is the president.
And on foreign policy:
A majority say that Obama apologizes too much to the rest of the world for past US policies.
A majority say that Obama is not doing what it takes to win in Afghanistan.
Two-thirds say they trust the military more than Obama to decide the next steps in Afghanistan! Only one in five trust Obama more.
As I noted earlier, majorities say Obama has not been tough enough on Iran, think military action against Iran will be required, and support such military action.
You can’t make this stuff up; and if you could, you wouldn’t want to:
President Obama’s “safe schools czar,” under fire from critics who say he’s unfit for his job, acknowledged Wednesday that he “should have handled [the] situation differently” years ago when he was a schoolteacher and didn’t report that a 15-year-old boy told him that he was having sex with an older man. . . [Kevin] Jennings has written that he told the boy, “I hope you knew to use a condom.”
In a statement issued Wednesday, Jennings said: “Twenty one years later I can see how I should have handled this situation differently. I should have asked for more information and consulted legal or medical authorities.”
Gee, you think?!
Jennings, director of the Office of Safe and Drug Free Schools, said he believes his office can now help keep other new teachers from making the same mistake.
“Teachers back then had little training or guidance about this kind of thing,” Jennings said.
I like to think that most teachers don’t need training to know to report statutory rape. This guy is the safe schools czar. The mind boggles.
UPDATE: Not just unconscionable, but criminal. Under Massachusetts law, teachers are mandatory reporters of statutory rape. (Via Instapundit.)
According to a new FOX News poll released Thursday, a sizable 69 percent majority of Americans thinks President Obama has not been tough enough on Iran. That includes over half of Democrats (55 percent), two-thirds of independents (67 percent) and almost all Republicans (88 percent).
Some 16 percent of Americans think the president’s actions have been “about right” and hardly any — 6 percent — say he has been “too tough” on Iran.
By a two-to-one margin the public thinks the U.S. will eventually need to use military force to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons — 59 percent think so, while 29 percent think Iran can be stopped without the use of force.
Furthermore, 61 percent of Americans support the U.S. taking military action to stop Iran, including majorities of Democrats (53 percent), Republicans (73 percent) and independents (55 percent). Some 28 percent of Americans oppose military action against Iran.
I’m honestly surprised by this. One gets the impression from the media that realism is in short supply, but apparently that’s just in our government.
UPDATE: A new Pew poll finds a nearly identical result: 61% support military action against Iran, including 51% of Democrats. Just 22% say Iran can be stopped by diplomacy alone, 64% say it cannot. (Via Hot Air.)
A new Pew poll reveals that support for abortion has faded in recent months. These results are very sensitive to the way the question is posed, but the trend is interesting. Support for legal abortion is at 47%, just one point higher than its all-time low (set this past July). Opposition is at an all-time high at 45%. The difference in well within the sampling error, making it a statistical tie (although, again, I think the trend is more interesting than the absolute numbers).
Support for abortion has slipped considerably in the last year:
It’s hard to guess what is driving the variation (particularly the strange dip in August 2001), but the overall trend is clear.
Another interesting result is that the importance of the abortion issue has dropped dramatically among abortion supporters, but not among opponents. Also, conservative Republicans are the best informed about abortion: 75% were able to identify President Obama’s view on abortion correctly. Moderate Democrats are the least well informed; only 49% could identify the president’s view correctly.
Earlier this month, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman wrote that America would be better off under a Chinese-style autocracy, because then Republicans couldn’t obstruct needed action on global warming and health care. In Friedman’s latest, he laments how attacks from the “far right” are creating a culture in which someone surely will try to kill the president.
As proof, he points out that some yahoo put a poll on his Facebook page asking whether the president should be assassinated. (The Secret Service is investigating.)
Well! That is pretty bad. Still, one guy on Facebook isn’t exactly the same thing as the CBS television network, is it? The Late, Late Show, produced by David Letterman and broadcast by CBS, had this to offer in response to George W. Bush’s nomination:
Neither is it the same as a feature film about the assassination of President Bush, or a column in the Guardian, a left-wing British paper, calling for President Bush’s assassination if he were re-elected:
On November 2, the entire civilised world will be praying, praying Bush loses. And Sod’s law dictates he’ll probably win, thereby disproving the existence of God once and for all. The world will endure four more years of idiocy, arrogance and unwarranted bloodshed, with no benevolent deity to watch over and save us. John Wilkes Booth, Lee Harvey Oswald, John Hinckley Jr – where are you now that we need you?
(The Guardian later apologized and took down the column, but you can still find it here.)
It certainly isn’t the same thing as Democratic elected officials such as New York State Controller Alan Hevesi joking about killing President Bush. (His audience lapped it up.) Or John Kerry, the former Democratic presidential candidate, seemingly joking about killing President Bush. (To be fair, it’s not entirely clear what he meant, as is often the case with John Kerry. However, it seems safe to assume that mere unclarity wouldn’t buy a pass from Thomas Friedman if the shoe were on the other foot.)
But if it’s yahoos you want, Zomblog has an endless parade of leftists calling for President Bush’s assassination.
Of course, it’s not really the yahoos that concern Friedman. It’s the attacks from throughout the “right fringe” who are “smearing” the president as a socialist. (Gosh, why on earth would you call someone socialist just because he nationalizes banks, insurance companies, auto companies, and auto parts companies; wants to nationalize health care and set energy prices; and is open to nationalizing newspapers?) Somehow, Friedman insinuates, those “smears” are going to lead to violence (although the years of talk of violence from the left did not). Exactly how, he won’t say. Nor will Rachel Maddow, Keith Olbermann, Contessa Brewer, or the rest pushing this calumny.
At long last, Democrats control nearly every lever of power in Washington. And yet they are having difficulty carrying out their progressive agenda because they are losing the public debate. Repeatedly accusing the opposition of lying (when they generally were not) didn’t help, so they need a new strategy to neutralize the opposition. This is it.
UPDATE: The Secret Service has found that the assassination poll was posted by a juvenile, and posed no threat to the president.
The president has insisted that his health care plan will not cover abortion, and it will not insure illegal immigrants. Anything to the contrary, he says, is a lie.
Today, the Senate Finance Committee had a chance to back up that pledge. It did not. It voted, largely along party lines, against an amendment to bar federal funding for abortion. And it voted, along party lines, against an amendment to proof of identity when singing up for federal healthcare programs.
It’s not for no reason that the public doesn’t believe the president.
The Supreme Court has agreed to hear McDonald v. Chicago, which hopefully will result in a ruling on whether the Second Amendment applies to the states.
Although it moonlights as a facilitator for child prostitution and human trafficking rings, ACORN’s bread-and-butter is election fraud. Today we have two new ACORN election fraud scandals. One is in Las Vegas, where ACORN illegally paid cash incentives for voter registrations, and the other is in Troy, New York, where an ACORN subsidiary forged dozens of absentee ballots.
This is interesting. Roman Polanski, a movie director who has been on the lam since pleading guilty to statutory rape in 1978. (Testimony indicates the crime was far worse, but statutory rape is what he was convicted of, so we’ll go with that.) For the past 30 years, Polanski has been living in France — who refused to extradite him — making movies and travelling internationally, but avoiding the US and UK. Last Saturday, Polanski was detained for extradition by Swiss authorities. A variety of people are horrified by this development, apparently believing that three decades in France is punishment enough.
One such person is Anne Applebaum, a columnist and blogger for the Washington Post. Applebaum called the arrest “outrageous” and said that Polanski has paid for his crime in “many, many ways”. For example, he was unable to go to Hollywood to receive his Oscar. Well, boo hoo. She also said his decision to flee justice was mitigated by an “understandable fear of irrational punishment” because he was a Holocaust survivor. So surviving the Holocaust is a get-out-of-jail-free card? I suspect that most Holocaust survivors would be offended at the idea.
Here’s where the Applebaum sub-story gets interesting. Patterico (a blogger who works for the LA DA’s office) revealed that Applebaum’s husband is the Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, who is personally lobbying to get Polanski released. (Polanski is a dual citizen of France and Poland.) Applebaum was happy to disclose her connection to Sikorski a week ago when it made her sound important, but did not do so in this case where it gives her a conflict of interest.
In response, Applebaum wrote another post expressing her deep offense at the suggestion that she had a conflict of interest. Following the standard playbook, she began her rebuttal by quoting an offensive piece of hate mail and insinuating that it is typical of the response. With the context established (people who disagree with her are evil), she then addressed the Sikorski angle. The most relevant portion (as quoted by Patterico) read:
Also, when I wrote the blog I had no idea that my husband, who is in Africa, would, or could do anything about it, as Polanski is not a Polish citizen.
(You won’t find this sentence in her post now, as I explain below.)
Her claim that Polanski is not a Polish citizen is simply wrong, but beyond that, Patterico pointed out that the Washington Post article linked from her original post reported the Sikorski angle:
Polanski also received support from Poland. . . “I am considering approaching the American authorities over the possibility of the U.S. president proclaiming an act of clemency, which would settle the matter once and for all,” said Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski, according to the PAP news agency.
Subsequent to that, Applebaum revised her defense to read:
However, I will also note that at the time I wrote the blog item, I had no idea that the Polish government would or could lobby for Polanski’s release, as I am in Budapest and my husband is in Africa. (My editors later added a link to a news story that mentioned him.)
She made this substantial revision without marking an update, which is very shoddy practice in the blogosphere, but we’ll set that aside. What are we to make of her defense? There are two possibilities. First, she could be lying. Second, she is telling the truth and thoroughly incompetent. Let’s run down what she is asking us to believe:
She spouted off without familiarizing herself with the facts (Polanski is a Polish citizen).
She has less idea what her husband is doing in regards to the very subject she is writing about than an unrelated blogger. In fact, she has less idea than anyone who reads her own newspaper.
She wrote her blog post without including a single link to any news story covering the affair. The post’s sole link was added by her editors.
In short, Applebaum wants us to believe that she blogs without making even a cursory effort to know what she is talking about. She might do better to say she lied.
POSTSCRIPT: Since it won’t do for me to go on at such length without expressing any opinion on the underlying controversy, I’ll just say that rapists should always be brought to justice, even if they avoid capture for thirty years. If there was some sort of misconduct in the case, as Polanski’s apologists allege, a court is the only institution competent to consider it. Also, the victim’s wish that Polanski not be punished is not germane. There may be crimes for which the victim’s reluctance to pursue justice is dispositive, but statutory rape is not one of them.
(Via Instapundit, who adds: You can tell a lot about a governing class from who it’s willing to cover for.)
Frank J. has some tips for liberals on how to calm angry conservatives. This suggestion was my favorite:
Call them racists: If we shout “Racist!” every time they say something, maybe they’ll finally reflect on the racism that motivates them against a black president and give up whatever silly cause they think they’re pushing. If they dispute the racism accusation, point out how sensitive they are about the charge and how that further proves it’s true (people who really aren’t racist shouldn’t have any problem with being called racist). If further evidence is needed, point out to them that the president is black and they are white and that it’s obvious to everyone that a white person saying bad things about an underprivileged black person is quite racist. If the conservative isn’t white, though, this can be confusing. Make sure to give that person a pamphlet describing the political views he is supposed to have based on his race. If the person doesn’t read the pamphlet, you might have to try using a racial slur. It’s okay, if the person deserves it.
President Obama will be travelling to Copenhagen for a day to make a pitch for the 2016 Olympic games to come to Chicago. Some people are upset about this, saying the president has important matters he should be attending to.
I disagree. The way I see it, any time he spends schmoozing the IOC is time he’s not working to nationalize our economy and alienate our allies. Sure, the president’s stature may suffer if the IOC picks someone else, but it can’t suffer more than it already has from the president’s own policies.
UPDATE: Ramesh Ponnuru thinks that Obama already knows Chicago has won, and is headed to Copenhagen so he can claim the credit.
Iran tested its most advanced missiles Monday to cap two days of war games, raising more international concern and stronger pressure to quickly come clean on the newly revealed nuclear site Tehran was secretly constructing.
State television said the powerful Revolutionary Guard, which controls Iran’s missile program, successfully tested upgraded versions of the medium-range Shahab-3 and Sajjil missiles. Both can carry warheads and reach up to 1,200 miles, putting Israel, U.S. military bases in the Middle East, and parts of Europe within striking distance.
The president’s decision to scrap missile defense in Europe, ostensibly because Iran isn’t working on long-range missiles, looks even more idiotic now.
Apparently, it’s illegal in Michigan to be a good neighbor:
A West Michigan woman says the state is threatening her with fines and possibly jail time for babysitting her neighbors’ children.
Lisa Snyder of Middleville says her neighborhood school bus stop is right in front of her home. It arrives after her neighbors need to be at work, so she watches three of their children for 15-40 minutes until the bus comes.
The Department of Human Services received a complaint that Snyder was operating an illegal child care home. DHS contacted Snyder and told her to get licensed, stop watching her neighbors’ kids, or face the consequences.
“It’s ridiculous.” says Snyder. “We are friends helping friends!” She added that she accepts no money for babysitting.
General McChrystal, the US commander in Afghanistan, has submitted his report requesting additional troops in the theater, warning the mission would likely fail without them. But President Obama won’t look at the report, it’s been shelved until the White House wants it:
The commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan has submitted a request for more troops, a spokesman said Saturday, but the Pentagon will hold it while President Barack Obama decides what strategy to pursue.
Don’t be fooled by the pretense that the Pentagon will hold the report; the Pentagon works for the president. If he wants the report, he can have it. Indeed, there are without question plenty at the White House who have seen it already. This is just a political dance to keep the report at arm’s length for the time being.
This is sheer idiocy. The Obama administration has been in office for over eight months. Any other president would have thought about Afghanistan already. (Unfortunately, Obama cannot “even fake an interest in foreign policy”.) Moreover, if they really thinking about Afghanistan strategy right now, wouldn’t it be useful to see the commanding general’s assessment? Is the president really committed to deciding in ignorance?
Clark Hoyt, the NYT ombudsman, has a formula when addressing complaints about his newspaper’s misconduct. First, he admits the paper made a mistake, then he denies it did so in bad faith. But lately, he’s had cases in which the NYT’s bad faith has been so blatant that it’s been necessary to withhold some of the facts. A few weeks ago, he did so in a small scandal involving David Pogue, the NYT’s technology columnist, and now he’s done so in the ACORN scandal.
ON Sept. 12, an Associated Press article inside The Times reported that the Census Bureau had severed its ties to Acorn, the community organizing group. Robert Groves, the census director, was quoted as saying that Acorn, one of thousands of unpaid organizations promoting the 2010 census, had become “a distraction.”
What the article didn’t say — but what followers of Fox News and conservative commentators already knew — was that a video sting had caught Acorn workers counseling a bogus prostitute and pimp on how to set up a brothel staffed by under-age girls, avoid detection and cheat on taxes.
As James Taranto points out, this is only half true. Indeed, the NYT’s version of the AP article did not say anything about the sting. But the AP article did:
ACORN fired two employees who were seen on hidden-camera video giving tax advice to a man posing as a pimp and a woman who pretended to be a prostitute. Fox News Channel broadcast excerpts from the video on Thursday. On the video, a man and woman visiting ACORN’s Baltimore office asked about buying a house and how to account on tax forms for the woman’s income. An ACORN employee advised the woman to list her occupation as “performance artist.”
In a statement, ACORN Maryland board member Margaret Williams said the video was an attempt to smear ACORN, and that undercover teams attempted similar setups in at least three other ACORN offices. Williams said no tax returns were filed and no assistance was provided.
The NYT actually edited the AP article to remove the information explaining the controversy. (“All the news that’s fit to print”!) That fact alone makes the denial of bad faith unworkable. No wonder Hoyt keeps it from the reader.
This incident, like the earlier Pogue incident, makes it crystal clear that Clark Hoyt’s job has nothing to do with holding his paper accountable. His purpose is to cover for his paper’s misdeeds, in order to reassure the NYT’s remaining readers that it is behaving responsibly. In other words, he is just another dishonest NYT journalist.
Barack Obama has at last granted Gordon Brown a formal one-to-one meeting as the two men try to play down reports of a rift in their relations.
The Prime Minister will be given his meeting at 4pm today (9pm BST) following the G20 summit in Pittsburgh. . .
The two men put on a show of friendship for the cameras in New York yesterday as part of the damage limitation exercise after the White House described reports of a snub as “totally absurd”. . .
Neither side denied, however, that British officials made repeated efforts to secure a formal meeting before Mr Brown arrived in the United States this week, nor that Mr Obama and the Prime Minister had held a private conversation in a UN kitchen.
The British PM shouldn’t have to plead for a meeting with the president. Was the president “too tired” again?
POSTSCRIPT: More on the 15-minute kitchen meeting that wasn’t at all a snub here.
Paul Krugman has a new deeply dishonest column, this time on cap-and-trade. Iain Murray gives the thing the full treatment; I want to focus on a single passage that one can appreciate without being familiar with the ins and outs of the cap-and-trade debate:
Instead, the campaign against saving the planet rests mainly on lies.
Thus, last week Glenn Beck — who seems to be challenging Rush Limbaugh for the role of de facto leader of the G.O.P. — informed his audience of a “buried” Obama administration study showing that Waxman-Markey would actually cost the average family $1,787 per year. Needless to say, no such study exists.
But we shouldn’t be too hard on Mr. Beck. Similar — and similarly false — claims about the cost of Waxman-Markey have been circulated by many supposed experts.
The “needless to say” is an exquisite touch. Of course nothing so damaging could be real.
Well, first let’s establish the facts: You can find the documents here. I blogged about them here.
Why does Krugman claim the documents don’t exist? He doesn’t say. Probably, he means that they don’t precisely fit the description since (1) some of the documents predate the Obama administration, (2) the documents do not exactly constitute a study, and (3) the analysis predates Waxman-Markey so it does not refer to the specific legislation. Therefore, it’s not literally an (1) Obama administration (2) study (3) of Waxman-Markey. Alternatively, he may mean that the $1787 figure, referring to the direct cost of carbon permits, doesn’t apply to the actual bill that passed the House, which gives most of the permits away. (According to the documents, the cost of higher energy prices will be comparable, but that cost is not estimated to the same precision.)
That may be what Krugman means, but he says none of this. He won’t lay out the facts and let the reader decide for himself, because the reader might not draw the conclusion he wants. Instead, he implies the documents don’t exist at all. But they do exist, and he knows it. His statement that “no such study exists” is, at best, true in only a hyper-technical way.
But Krugman goes further, and calls Beck a liar. Being wrong in a hyper-technical way does not constitute lying. (And this is assuming that Beck was wrong at all, which isn’t clear. Krugman does not offer a quote, much less a verifiable link, just his own vague summary.)
I am sick and tired of watching the Democrats falsely accuse people of lying. Making predictions with which Democrats don’t agree isn’t lying. Pointing out unintended but predictable consequences of legislation isn’t lying. Making mistakes isn’t lying, and making basically true statements that contain hyper-technical errors certainly isn’t lying. Calling someone a liar for one of the above, that is lying.
Krugman opens his column this way:
So, have you enjoyed the debate over health care reform? Have you been impressed by the civility of the discussion and the intellectual honesty of reform opponents?
Ah yes, the civility and intellectual honesty. I can hardly bear the irony. Krugman, heal thyself.
Just to put some of the numbers in perspective, Obama has logged 124 television interviews so far in his presidency, compared with about 40 interviews at this point for Bill Clinton or George W. Bush. And the television networks have been generous with their nightly news coverage of the president — in the first four months of the presidency, they gave him 28 hours, compared with eight hours for Bush in his first term.
Obama, Sarkozy, and Brown are shocked. Except that they aren’t. They’ve known about it for years. They only told us about it when the Iranians, having discovered that we knew what they were up to in Qom, told the IAEA. So what’s all the faux garment rending and chest pounding about?
Once the Iranians confessed, the West had a choice: Either we knew or we didn’t. If we didn’t, our intelligence agencies were even more incompetent than we thought. If we did, somebody might ask why we were pretending there was hope that the Iranian regime might eventually cooperate.
In other words, they knew things were much worse than they were saying, and in order to avoid embarrassing questions, Western leaders feigned outrage and promised — yet again — to be tough. . .
Meanwhile, the president’s diplomatic ire is not aimed at Iran, a tyrannical enemy. He’s focused on Israel and Honduras. Two democratic allies.
The FCC is preparing to impose network neutrality on the Internet. Despite what the WSJ says in its headline, this is not a boon for consumers and Silicon Valley. I explain why here and here.
The blogosphere is abuzz about the video Allahpundit uncovered two days ago of school kids being taught to sing President Obama’s praises. In an ACORN-esque display of tune-deafness, the school superintendent made this statement:
Superintendent Christopher Manno said in a written statement Thursday that the taping itself was out of order, but failed to address whether the lesson was approved. “The recording and distribution of the class activity were unauthorized,” he wrote in a note to parents and the media.
Nothing to say about the “lesson”, but he’s upset that the video went out. Listen Mr. Manno: the problem is not the fact that you were caught!
With the increasing ubiquity of video cameras, and the means easily to distribute information over the internet, we can expose our officials’ malfeasance in ways we never could before. The days when they enjoyed our unthinking trust are over. We’ve learned how wrong we were.
UPDATE: The principal is standing by the “lesson”.
UPDATE: This is not the first outrage from the Burlington Township School District.
UPDATE: They have succeeded in taking the video down, but you can find the lyrics here.
Popular Mechanics has an interesting article about how Halo 3: ODST came to pass. The article is right that ODST did a great job of creating a new game with Halo 3 gameplay but a very different feel.
But they also make a mistake by crediting ODST with the idea of rapidly developing a new story on an existing engine. The idea goes back at least as far as Half-Life 2 Episode One (great game, awful name). And it’s been used in several shooters since, including GRAW 2 and Rainbow Six Vegas 2.
I also think the staying power of ODST isn’t going to be in the new campaign — which is actually a little too short — but the new “firefight” mode, which pits a team of human players against wave after wave of AI attackers. Firefight isn’t original either. It’s a copy of the “Horde” mode in Gears of War 2, but I think it’s better executed than the Gears of War version.
Closing the military prison at Guantanamo Bay turns out to be not so easy after all:
With four months left to meet its self-imposed deadline for closing the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, the Obama administration is working to recover from missteps that have put officials behind schedule and left them struggling to win the cooperation of Congress.
Even before the inauguration, President Obama’s top advisers settled on a course of action they were counseled against: announcing that they would close the facility within one year. Today, officials are acknowledging that they will be hard-pressed to meet that goal.
The White House has faltered in part because of the legal, political and diplomatic complexities involved in determining what to do with more than 200 terrorism suspects at the prison. But senior advisers privately acknowledge not devising a concrete plan for where to move the detainees and mishandling Congress.
Which is exactly what the Bush administration tried to tell them:
Before the election, Craig met privately with a group of top national security lawyers who had served in Democratic and Republican administrations to discuss Guantanamo Bay. During the transition, he met with members of the outgoing administration, some of whom warned him against issuing a deadline to close the facility without first finding alternative locations for the prisoners. . .
“The entire civil service counseled him not to set a deadline” to close Guantanamo, according to one senior government lawyer.
They had no plan. Nevertheless, the president and White House counsel decided that if they merely set a deadline, it would magically ensure that they would have a plan when the time came.
The president and his surrogates have been trying hard to convince the public that his health care plan will not contain “death panels”, will not cover illegal immigrants, and will not fund abortions:
Some of people’s concerns have grown out of bogus claims spread by those whose only agenda is to kill reform at any cost. The best example is the claim made not just by radio and cable talk show hosts, but by prominent politicians, that we plan to set up panels of bureaucrats with the power to kill off senior citizens. Now, such a charge would be laughable if it weren’t so cynical and irresponsible. It is a lie, plain and simple. (Applause.)
There are also those who claim that our reform efforts would insure illegal immigrants. This, too, is false. The reforms — the reforms I’m proposing would not apply to those who are here illegally.
AUDIENCE MEMBER: You lie! (Boos.)
THE PRESIDENT: It’s not true. And one more misunderstanding I want to clear up — under our plan, no federal dollars will be used to fund abortions, and federal conscience laws will remain in place. (Applause.)
Despite his efforts, the latest CBS/NYT poll indicates that the president has failed to convince the public on the first two. (Oddly, they did not poll on the question of abortion coverage.) And this is despite CBS/NYT being among the most severely biased polls. (ASIDE: CBS/NYT overestimated Obama’s margin of victory more than any other major poll except Newsweek. Even the Fair model, which does no polling and doesn’t know who the candidates are, did better.)
At this point, it seems safe to say that the public has heard the president. They simply do not believe him.
It’s been 89 days since Manuel Zelaya was booted from power. He’s sleeping on chairs, and he claims his throat is sore from toxic gases and “Israeli mercenaries” are torturing him with high-frequency radiation.
“We are being threatened with death,” he said in an interview with The Miami Herald, adding that mercenaries were likely to storm the embassy where he has been holed up since Monday and assassinate him. . .
Zelaya was deposed at gunpoint on June 28 and slipped back into his country on Monday, just two days before he was scheduled to speak before the United Nations. He sought refuge at the Brazilian Embassy, where Zelaya said he is being subjected to toxic gases and radiation that alter his physical and mental state.
One puzzling thing about the ACORN scandal is why so many ACORN offices were willing to involve themselves in such a preposterously flagrant criminal enterprise. A deep disregard for the law is part of it, obviously, but that’s not a sufficient explanation. Unlike voter fraud, child prostitution is not a core mission of ACORN (I hope!), so why did they involve themselves?
I think the answer goes to the nature of modern liberalism. Unlike conservatism or libertarianism, modern liberalism is not really an ideology. Rather, modern liberalism is an alliance of various interests, and it’s difficult to express any principle that those interests have in common. For example, the liberal umbrella contains both feminists (who favor women’s rights, ostensibly at least) and multiculturalists (who defend oppression of women throughout the world, particularly in the Muslim world).
In short, while the right sees the world in terms of right-and-wrong or free-and-unfree, the modern liberal generally sees the world in terms of us-and-them. As we have seen often this year, liberals will see the exact same policy promulgated by both Bush and Obama negatively in the former instance but positively in the latter.
How does this explain ACORN? An under-reported aspect of O’Keefe and Giles’s investigation is the manner in which O’Keefe introduced himself. He introduced himself as a law student who intended to use the profits from his side business (child prostitution) to finance his run for Congress. By presenting himself as an aspiring liberal politician, O’Keefe identified himself to ACORN as one of them. This, I suspect, made all the difference. In the absence of any moral standard or respect for the law, ACORN was willing to go the extra mile for anyone on its side.
The phenomenon is not limited to ACORN. We can see it in the response of Congressional Democrats to the scandal. Of course, most Democrats voted with the Republicans to cut off ACORN funding. But the most liberal Democrats, 75 of them, voted to continue ACORN funding despite everything. Harry Reid also blocked a Senate investigation. Why? To them, government is a matter of us-and-them. Whatever ACORN had done, ACORN was on their side.
We also see it in the response of the mainstream media. Despite the story being incredibly juicy, the liberal media did everything it could to avoid reporting it. (Of course, it would have been the top story for days had it been a conservative group.) Once they were forced to report the story, they tried to balance it with dirt on O’Keefe and Giles. There being no real dirt available, they tried to smear them as racists.
But the motives of O’Keefe and Giles aren’t actually relevant to what ACORN did, and even if the smears were true it still wouldn’t excuse ACORN’s conduct. So why report it that way? Because the modern liberal sees the world through the lens of us-and-them, not right-and-wrong. In an us-and-them world, the nature of the whistleblowers is relevant. If the other side can be shown to be bad, that amounts to a full exoneration.
In Baton Rouge, Louisiana, you can’t beat a ticket from a red-light camera, even when you’re obviously innocent. As far as a local news team could determine, there is no court that will review them.
ASIDE: The title of the story isn’t quite apt. This isn’t a case of “guilty until proven innocent”; it’s “guilty even if proven innocent”.
Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE) blows the whistle on a quid pro quo in the closed-door health care negotiations:
I’ll tell you — if someone negotiated a deal with me and I agreed to put up say, 80 dollars or 80 million dollars or 80 billion dollars and then you came back and said to me a couple of weeks later — no no, I know you agreed to do 80 billion and I know you were willing to help support through an advertising campaign this particular — not even this particular bill, just the idea of generic health care reform? No, we’re going to double — we’re going to double what you agreed in those negotiations to do. That’s not the way — that’s not what I consider treating people the way I’d want to be treated.
Senate Finance Committee Democrats have rejected a GOP amendment that would have required a health overhaul bill to be available online for 72 hours before the committee votes.
The reason Democrats gave is that, under the amendment, they would be required actually to write the bill before voting on it. I am not making this up.
A new report by the Congressional Research Service Law Library of Congress confirms that there was no coup in Honduras, just a constitutional transfer of power:
“The Supreme Court of Honduras has constitutional and statutory authority to hear cases against the President of the Republic and many other high officers of the State, to adjudicate and enforce judgments, and to request the assistance of the public forces to enforce its rulings.”
—Congressional Research Service, August 2009
Ever since Manuel Zelaya was removed from the Honduran presidency by that country’s Supreme Court and Congress on June 28 for violations of the constitution, the Obama administration has insisted, without any legal basis, that the incident amounts to a “coup d’état” and must be reversed. President Obama has dealt harshly with Honduras, and Americans have been asked to trust their president’s proclamations.
Now a report filed at the Library of Congress by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) provides what the administration has not offered, a serious legal review of the facts. “Available sources indicate that the judicial and legislative branches applied constitutional and statutory law in the case against President Zelaya in a manner that was judged by the Honduran authorities from both branches of the government to be in accordance with the Honduran legal system,” writes CRS senior foreign law specialist Norma C. Gutierrez in her report.
The United States, for some unfathomable reason, is trying to end the constitutional order in Honduras, not save it.
UPDATE: The report is here. It was actually done by the Law Library of Congress, not the CRS, which is a different branch of the Library of Congress. (Via Volokh.)
Iran’s sole Simorgh AWACS aircraft was lost during a military parade Sept. 22, one of two Iranian military aircraft that crashed in Tehran while participating in a display to mark the anniversary of the start of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.
But I think Israel Matzav and Instapundit are misreading the article when they call it Iran’s only AWACS. I read it to say the crashed plane was Iran’s only AWACS of that type.
Congress’ chief budget officer is contradicting President Barack Obama’s oft-stated claim that seniors wouldn’t see their Medicare benefits cut under a health care overhaul.
The head of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, Douglas Elmendorf, told senators Tuesday that seniors in Medicare’s managed care plans would see reduced benefits under a bill in the Finance Committee.
With per vehicle environmental benefits at $596 and the costs at $2,600 per vehicle, the clunker program is a net drain on society of roughly $2,000 per vehicle. Given the approximately 700,000 vehicles in the program, we estimate the total welfare loss to be about $1.4 billion. The welfare loss would be even greater if we fine tuned our estimate of the social cost per gallon to account for the spatial mix of clunkers. Clunkers, especially the trucks that comprise a large percentage of the traded-in vehicles, may have been retired disproportionately from rural locations where the social costs of pollutants are significantly lower. Also, if the average value of clunkers exceeds our conservative figure of $1000, then cost of the program would be higher. Even if the environmental gains were double our estimate, the net drain would still be close to $1 billion. While a more rigorous analysis would no doubt adjust these figures, we doubt that the basic conclusion would change.
CBS News has an article about five health care promises that the president won’t keep. For two of them that’s a good thing, including this one:
Allow Drug Importation
During the campaign, Mr. Obama said his plan (PDF) would “Allow consumers to import safe drugs from other countries” because “some companies are exploiting Americans by dramatically overcharging U.S. consumers.”
As noted above, the Obama administration secretly conceded to forgo the importation of cheaper drugs in its deal with the pharmaceutical industry.
Indeed, Obama did make that promise (one doesn’t want to trust CBS for this sort of thing):
Allow consumers to import safe drugs from other countries. The second-fastest growing type of health expenses is prescription drugs. Pharmaceutical companies should profit when their research and development results in a groundbreaking new drug. But some companies are exploiting Americans by dramatically overcharging U.S. consumers. These companies are selling the exact same drugs in Europe and Canada but charging Americans a 67 percent premium. Barack Obama and Joe Biden will allow Americans to buy their medicines from other developed countries if the drugs are safe and prices are lower outside the U.S.
This is sheer foolishness, as basic economics will tell you. In fact, one doesn’t need to know any economics; mere common sense should tell you that we cannot realize real savings by shipping a product to Canada and back.
What is happening here is called price discrimination. This happens when the supplier of a product or service sells it at a different price to different customers. This can only arise with an uncompetitive market (typically a monopoly); a competitive market will compete away such price differences. Also, it can only arise when the supplier is able to segment his market into (at least) two parts and prevent arbitrage between the segments.
Price discrimination is not inherently bad. Abstractly, it leads to more efficient resource allocation. (In the limit, called perfect price discrimination, commodities are supplied in the same quantity as they would in a competitive market.) Concretely, it lowers prices for those who are less able to afford a commodity, and raises them for those who are better able to afford it. A classic example is different rates at museums and zoos for children, adults, and seniors. (Progressives ought to be all in favor of this!)
Prescription drug companies have been able to break their market into U.S. and Canadian segments. (Additionally, many drugs are sold at an even lower price in Africa.) They then sell the drugs more cheaply in the less wealthy market segment, Canada. (An additional complication arises from Canada’s monopsonistic drug purchasing, but that doesn’t affect the analysis.)
So what will happen if we permit drug reimportation (i.e., arbitrage)? At a small scale, nothing at all. If the drug companies gain more from price discrimination than they lose from arbitrage, they’ll stick with it. But suppose we allow drug reimportation on a national scale? Then the drug companies’ ability to segment their market is gone, and price discrimination will disappear overnight.
That means that U.S. and Canadian prices will equalize at some price in the middle. We won’t see much benefit though. Since the U.S. market is much larger than the Canadian market, price discrimination has not affected our price significantly. Therefore, the new price will be imperceptibly lower than the U.S. price.
In summary, large-scale drug reimportation would screw Canada over, while obtaining no significant benefit for us. If this proposal were ever to see the light of day (and fortunately it appears it will not), we could expect Canada to fight hard against it. Barack Obama’s campaign call for reimportation was either economic illiteracy, or (more likely) simple demagoguery.
POSTSCRIPT: As I recall, John McCain supported reimportation as well; not that that matters any more.
Remember during the campaign when Obama wanted to strengthen his national security credentials and we were told that he would refocus the war effort on Afghanistan after the “distraction” of Iraq? Yeah, I didn’t believe it either. McClatchy reports:
Six months after it announced its strategy for Afghanistan, the Obama administration is sending mixed signals about its objectives there and how many troops are needed to achieve them.
The conflicting messages are drawing increasing ire from U.S. commanders in Afghanistan and frustrating military leaders, who’re trying to figure out how to demonstrate that they’re making progress in the 12-18 months that the administration has given them.
Adding to the frustration, according to officials in Kabul and Washington, are White House and Pentagon directives made over the last six weeks that Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. military commander in Afghanistan, not submit his request for as many as 45,000 additional troops because the administration isn’t ready for it. . .
In Kabul, some members of McChrystal’s staff said they don’t understand why Obama called Afghanistan a “war of necessity” but still hasn’t given them the resources they need to turn things around quickly.
Three officers at the Pentagon and in Kabul told McClatchy that the McChrystal they know would resign before he’d stand behind a faltering policy that he thought would endanger his forces or the strategy.
“Yes, he’ll be a good soldier, but he will only go so far,” a senior official in Kabul said. “He’ll hold his ground. He’s not going to bend to political pressure.”
That stuff about Afghanistan was a campaign promise. He probably never intended to keep it.
POSTSCRIPT: Remember that Gen. McKiernan, the previous commander in Afghanistan, requested more troops months ago. He was subsequently fired. The reason given was Gen. McChrystal was the best man for the job.
UPDATE: Rich Lowry: “It’s hard to imagine a starker demonstration of bad faith on an important issue of national security.”
A troubling incident at UNC-Chapel Hill: A student group is unpopular in certain circles. Those people threaten the group’s faculty advisor. The faculty advisor remarks that he is able to defend himself. Chancellor Holden Thorp calls the remark “highly inappropriate” and induces him to resign as the group’s faculty advisor. The student group will soon be forced to close if they cannot find a new advisor.
UNC ought to be sticking up for free speech on campus, rather than collaborating with the mob to shut down a student organization. UNC ought to be disciplining threats against its faculty, not the faculty who are being threatened. Very, very badly done.
Ben and Sharon Vogelenzang are awaiting trial accused of breaching public order by insulting a guest at their hotel in Aintree, Liverpool, about her religion.
The couple, who are members of an evangelical congregation, were arrested by police after getting into a discussion with the woman about the differences between Christianity and Islam earlier this year.
Mrs Vogelenzang, 54, is understood to have described Muslim dress as putting women into “bondage” while her husband, 53, allegedly described the Prophet Mohammed as a “warlord”. . .
The guest complained to Merseyside Police who called the couple in for an interview. They were questioned twice before being charged with a religiously aggravated public order offence.
They appeared before magistrates last week where they denied the charges and are due to go on trial later this year. If found guilty they face a fine and a criminal record.
A proposed requirement that all Americans buy health insurance does in fact include a “tax” increase, according to the Senate — even though President Obama insisted Sunday that it “absolutely” does not.
Obama gave ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos a stern talking-to Sunday for suggesting that the mandate to buy health insurance would amount to a tax. He even taunted the host for citing the dictionary definition of “tax” to make his point.
“The fact that you looked up Merriam’s Dictionary, the definition of tax increase, indicates to me that you’re stretching a little bit right now,” Obama said.
But the language of the health care reform plan proposed by Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., explicitly labels the penalty attached to the mandate as an “excise tax.”
Penalties for failing to obtain coverage would range from $750 to $3,800 under the plan. This is addressed in a section labeled: “Excise Tax.”
“The excise tax would apply for any period for which the individual is not covered by a health insurance plan with the minimum required benefit,” the Baucus plan says.
It’s not the way he stretches (and breaks) the truth that sets President Obama apart, most politicians do that. What sets Obama apart from other politicians is the sanctimonious manner in which he demeans those who call him on it.
Having failed to win the public debate on health care reform, the Obama administration has moved on to trying to silence its critics. The AP reports:
The government is investigating a major insurance company for allegedly trying to scare seniors with a mailer warning they could lose important benefits under health care legislation in Congress.
The Health and Human Services Department launched its investigation of Humana after getting a complaint from Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., a senior lawmaker usually viewed as a reliable ally of the insurance industry.
“It is wholly unacceptable for insurance companies to mislead seniors regarding any subject — particularly on a subject as important to them, and to the nation, as health care reform,” Baucus said Monday, disclosing the HHS investigation.
Humana Inc., headquartered in Louisville, Ky., is cooperating with the investigation and stopped the mailer earlier this month, company spokesman Tom Noland said Monday.
It’s unlikely to stop here. Remember, Obama’s organization was threatening his critics even before he was elected president.
UPDATE: I thought that for-profit companies have weaker free-speech protection than other organizations, but it seems I was mistaken. Apparently the distinction is not based on the speaker, but on the sort of speech. Commercial speech (that is, speech that proposes a commercial transaction) is offered less protection than other sorts of speech. (I see no justification for even that distinction in the Constitution, but never mind.) Since Humana’s mailer is political speech, not commercial, it is Constitutionally protected.
This article about the community organizing group ACORN incorrectly said that a conservative journalist targeted the organization for hidden-camera videos partly because its voter-registration drives bring Latinos and African Americans to the polls. Although ACORN registers people mostly from those groups, the maker of the videos, James E. O’Keefe, did not specifically mention them.
In a recent interview, Former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski shows some of the wisdom that helped make the Carter administration such a smashing success. He pronounces that if Israel decides to take out Iran’s nuclear weapons program, the United States should shoot down their planes:
Q: How aggressive can Obama be in insisting to the Israelis that a military strike might be in America’s worst interest?
Brzezinski: We are not exactly impotent little babies. They have to fly over our airspace in Iraq. Are we just going to sit there and watch?
Q: What if they fly over anyway?
B: Well, we have to be serious about denying them that right. That means a denial where you aren’t just saying it. If they fly over, you go up and confront them. They have the choice of turning back or not. No one wishes for this but it could be a Liberty in reverse.
ASIDE: Brzezinski refers to the USS Liberty incident during the 1967 Six-day War in which Israeli jets attacked a US Navy ship, causing major damage and 34 deaths. The ensuing investigation found that the incident was a tragic mistake, and Israel paid millions in restitution. Nevertheless, some (apparently including Brzezinski) believe that Israel attacked the ship deliberately.
Fortunately, I can’t see the president giving such an order. Not only would such an attack be catastrophic to US-Israel relations (already severely damaged by the president), it would make President Obama a hostage to fortune. Anything that Iran would do with its nuclear weapons would be Obama’s inescapable, personal responsibility.
POSTSCRIPT: As horrifying as it may be, Brzezinski’s proposal is moderate compared to that of Obama foreign-policy adviser Samantha Power, who has called for the US to invade Israel and impose a settlement between Israel and the Palestinians.
Last May, I wrote to my state representative, Paul Costa (D), about the incident in which the Community College of Allegheny County trampled the free-speech rights of one of its students. Rep. Costa is a graduate of CCAC, so I thought he might be concerned. Well, he wasn’t. Costa never even replied to my email, but I’ve just discovered that he did add me to his spam list. What a jerk.
In the second major victory this week for Anglicans seeking to leave the Episcopal Church, the South Carolina Supreme Court has ruled in favor of All Saints Parish Waccamaw, against the Episcopal Church USA and the Diocese of South Carolina. There are two main parts to the ruling:
First, the court applied “neutral principles” to the case. This means that the case is judged in exactly the same manner as if it were a secular organization. In the older “deference” approach (which has been deprecated but not forbidden by the US Supreme Court), the court must determine if the church is “hierarchical” or “congregational”, and defer to the ecclesiastical authorities in the former case and to the congregation in the latter. Since the Episcopal Church would presumably be found to be hierarchical, a deference approach would favor the Episcopal Church.
Second, the court found that Episcopal Church cannot impose a trust over property to which it has no title, as it purported to do with the Dennis Canon:
Furthermore, we hold that neither the 2000 Notice nor the Dennis Canon has any legal effect on title to the All Saints congregation’s property. A trust “may be created by either declaration of trust or by transfer of property….” Dreher v. Dreher, 370 S.C. 75, 80, 634 S.E.2d 646, 648 (2006). It is an axiomatic principle of law that a person or entity must hold title to property in order to declare that it is held in trust for the benefit of another or transfer legal title to one person for the benefit of another. . .
For the aforementioned reasons, we hold that title to the property at issue is held by All Saints Parish, Waccamaw, Inc., [and] the Dennis Canons had no legal effect on the title to the congregation’s property.
This is huge. In South Carolina it looks like a conclusive victory for Anglicans, nullifying the Dennis Canon.
Iran has brutally suppressed anti-government rallies, but the protesters have found a way to adapt. They turn out for officially sanctioned rallies (mostly anti-Israel) and turn them into opposition rallies. (Via Hot Air.)
The Mayor of Wellford is defending her policy which bans police officers in that city from chasing suspects. Sallie Peake says the policy also includes vehicle chases along with pursuits on foot.
A memo issued on September 2nd from Peake to all Wellford officers reads:
“As of this date, there are to be no more foot chases when a suspect runs. I do not want anyone chasing after any suspects whatsoever.“ . . .
Peake says she issued the mandate because several officers have been injured during chases, driving up insurance costs for the town.
An anecdote that the president used prominently in his health care speech is bogus:
President Barack Obama, seeking to make a case for health-insurance regulation, told a poignant story to a joint session of Congress last week. An Illinois man getting chemotherapy was dropped from his insurance plan when his insurer discovered an unreported gallstone the patient hadn’t known about.
“They delayed his treatment, and he died because of it,” the president said in the nationally televised address.
In fact, the man, Otto S. Raddatz, didn’t die because the insurance company rescinded his coverage once he became ill, an act known as recission. The efforts of his sister and the office of Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan got Raddatz’s policy reinstated within three weeks of his April 2005 rescission and secured a life-extending stem-cell transplant for him. Raddatz died this year, nearly four years after the insurance showdown. . .
The patient’s sister, Peggy M. Raddatz, testified before the House Energy and Commerce oversight subcommittee June 16 that her brother ultimately received treatment that “extended his life approximately three years.” Nowhere in the hearing did she say her brother died because of the delay.
On learning of the error, the White House quickly issued a correction and apologized for spreading misinformation.
Ha ha! Just kidding:
Obama aides say the president got the essence of the story correct.
Gov. Deval Patrick said Friday that President Barack Obama had personally talked to him about changing the Senate succession law in Massachusetts, and White House aides were pushing for him to gain the power to temporarily replace the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy amid the administration’s health care push.
A month after a White House spokesman labeled the issue a state matter, Patrick said he and Obama spoke about changing the law as they both attended Kennedy’s funeral in Boston last month. He also said White House aides have been in contact frequently ever since and pushing for the change so they can regain their filibuster-proof majority in the U.S. Senate.
The Obama administration is very good at espousing high principles, and completely unable to adhere to them.
The Economist is belatedly realizing it is one of the rubes:
YOU can be fairly sure that when a government slips an announcement out at nine o’clock on a Friday night, it is not proud of what it is doing. That is one of the only things that makes sense about Barack Obama’s decision to break a commitment he, along with other G20 leaders, reaffirmed last April: to avoid protectionist measures at a time of great economic peril. In every other way the president’s decision to slap a 35% tariff on imported Chinese tyres looks like a colossal blunder, confirming his critics’ worst fears about the president’s inability to stand up to his party’s special interests and stick to the centre ground he promised to occupy in office.
This newspaper endorsed Mr Obama at last year’s election (see article) in part because he had surrounded himself with enough intelligent centrists. We also said that the eventual success of his presidency would be based on two things: resuscitating the world economy; and bringing the new emerging powers into the Western order. He has now hurt both objectives.
[In his address, President Obama said] “I will not sign a plan that adds one dime to our deficits — either now or in the future,” he solemnly pledged. “I will not sign it if it adds one dime to the deficit, now or in the future. Period.”
Wonderful. The president seems serious, veto-ready, determined to hold the line. Until, notes Harvard economist Greg Mankiw, you get to Obama’s very next sentence: “And to prove that I’m serious, there will be a provision in this plan that requires us to come forward with more spending cuts if the savings we promised don’t materialize.”
This apparent strengthening of the pledge brilliantly and deceptively undermines it. What Obama suggests is that his plan will require mandatory spending cuts if the current rosy projections prove false. But there’s absolutely nothing automatic about such cuts. Every Congress is sovereign. Nothing enacted today will force a future Congress or a future president to make any cuts in any spending, mandatory or not.
Just look at the supposedly automatic Medicare cuts contained in the Sustainable Growth Rate formula enacted to constrain out-of-control Medicare spending. Every year since 2003, Congress has waived the cuts.
She says only a racist would use a prostitution sting on a predominantly black organization. (Cue to 2:00 here.) I guess the race card is all they have left.
Seven former directors of the Central Intelligence Agency on Friday urged President Obama to reverse Attorney General Eric Holder’s decision to hold a criminal investigation of CIA interrogators who used enhanced techniques on detainees. . .
The letter was signed by former directors Michael Hayden, Porter Goss, George Tenet, John Deutch, R. James Woolsey, William Webster and James R. Schlesinger.
Incidentally, that is all the former CIA directors still living other than Robert Gates (who is in the president’s cabinet), President George H. W. Bush (who is generally silent on politics today), and Stansfield Turner (Jimmy Carter’s CIA director who is best known for decimating its human intelligence resources).
In the latest Rasmussen poll, 56% disapprove of the Democratic health care reform plan, including a near majority (44%) that strongly disapprove. Those who strongly disapprove outnumber the 43% who approve at all (even weakly).
UPDATE: The RNC has a rundown of public opinion on health care reform. (Via Free Market Mojo.)
A new Rasmussen poll indicates that hardly anybody likes ACORN: 67% have an unfavorable impression against just 15% favorable. Even liberals are divided: 35% favorable vs. 38% unfavorable. A majority (51%) say that Congress should cut off all funding for ACORN; just 17% say Congress should continue funding them.
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