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Before the election, we were told that President Obama’s new diplomatic approach would line up our erstwhile allies to help in Afghanistan.  Alas, it turns out that President Obama is good at attracting huge crowds of cheering supporters and fawning journalists, but no better than the previous administration at extracting substantive commitments from Europe:

Behind the display of revived transatlantic friendship, European leaders have proved reluctant to follow Obama in his first major foreign policy initiative, which in effect seeks to make Afghanistan NATO’s main mission of the moment. With a few exceptions, European analysts said, the leaders are ready to heed the U.S. call for more military help in Afghanistan only to the extent necessary to stay friendly with the new administration.

“The Europeans want to come back from the summit and say, ‘Look, we’re still tight with the Americans,’ ” said Daniel Korski, an Afghanistan specialist at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “The Americans want to come back from the summit and say, ‘Look, the Europeans are going to help with the new strategy in Afghanistan.’ ”

European officials said Obama is likely to come away from the summit Saturday with a broad endorsement of his idea that stabilizing Afghanistan is a strategic goal for NATO and support for his decision to devote more civilian as well as military resources to eliminating al-Qaeda havens there and in Pakistan. But they also said that summit pleasantries are unlikely to mask Europe’s refusal to commit to major new troop deployments.

(Via Hot Air.)

European leaders basically are saying, “stabilizing Afghanistan is a great idea; someone totally ought to do that.”

This is a classic instance of the free-rider problem.  Europe knows that we will do it if no one else does, so why should they put themselves out?  Military action abroad is expensive, complicated, and politically costly, so why do it when you know the United States will?  Whatever animus may or may not have existed with President Bush, this was the real reason why we couldn’t get substantive contributions for Afghanistan from much of Europe, and it hasn’t changed with the new administration.

ASIDE: NATO did assist with Bosnia and Kosovo, because those conflicts mattered a lot to Europe, much more than they mattered to America.  Even so, we did most of the heavy lifting.

Donald Rumsfeld recognized the free-rider problem when we created the ISAF to provide security for Kabul after Operation Enduring Freedom.  Douglas Feith writes in his book (p. 156):

[The ISAF] would receive help from the United States, though American troops would not become part of ISAF. This last restriction was important to Rumsfeld.  He reasoned that ISAF’s contributors would have less incentive to support the effort if they believed the Americans would join the force and the United States would therefore be likely to cover any shortfalls.

and (p. 157-158):

It soon became clear, however, that our critics wanted the United States to support the [ISAF] expansion by providing U.S. forces and funds to make it possible.  This reflected the very frame of mind that Rumsfeld warned against: the Yankee can-do, fill-every-vacuum hyperactivity that deprives other countries of incentives to pull their weight in multilateral projects. . .  One of ISAF’s key purposes was to allow others in the world to help the new Afghanistan. Rumsfeld did not favor reflagging U.S. operations — having our soldiers perform a mission and calling it an ISAF rather than a coalition effort — simply to make ISAF look robust.  He told me he wanted ISAF to be useful, look successful, and take on more responsibility if it could, but as a serious partner, not functioning on the cheap.

Unfortunately, the ISAF did not fully satisfy those aims.  The free-rider problem still existed because, although the ISAF was given responsibility for Kabul, the world still recognized that America was ultimately on the hook.  Although some countries did make substantial contributions, we failed to generate the robust international effort we wanted.

The ISAF was not a complete success, but at least Rumsfeld recognized the need for a strategy to overcome the free-rider problem. In contrast, President Obama is looking to overcome it by sheer force of personality.  It’s not impossible for that to work, I suppose, but it certainly never seemed likely.

AP reports.  I’ll bet he will.  Iran or Hamas would surely be happy to take them as well.

The Wall Street Journal reports:

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez moved to jail a prominent opposition figure for the second time in recent weeks, an apparent bid to tighten his grip on power amid a sharp downturn in economic growth.

Raúl Baduel, a former defense minister-turned-Chávez-critic, was arrested on corruption charges Thursday, according to Mr. Baduel’s lawyer, Omar Mora Tosta, and government officials. Mr. Mora Tosta says the charges are unfounded. . .

Government officials say the actions against Messrs. Baduel and Rosales are the result of legitimate investigations into their financial dealings when they held public office.

Some observers, however, say the moves illustrate how Mr. Chávez is using government institutions to punish political opponents. “All available information suggests that this is selective prosecution motivated by political reasons,” says José Miguel Vivanco, executive director of Human Rights Watch’s Americas program. Mr. Vivanco says he was expelled from Venezuela at gunpoint last year after releasing a report critical of Mr. Chávez. . .

The sudden economic slowdown has forced Mr. Chavez to curtail spending and raise taxes — two measures that will hurt the poor and could dent his popularity. Some economists say currency devaluation may be next.

Mr. Chávez appears to be striking at chief opponents before they can use the worsening economy against him, observers said.

Well, at least Chavez’s opponents aren’t turning up dead, like Putin’s.

Another Kremlin opponent murdered abroad.  (Via Hit & Run, via Instapundit.)

No socialist revolution is complete without identifying enemies of the people, and one group always serves particularly well in that role:

The Venezuelan Jewish community traces its roots back more than 200 years and has no history of tension with the local population. Before the rise of Hugo Chavez, the Jews were a welcome part of a society known for its warm temperament and amiable disposition, free from the discrimination and anti-Semitic violence in many other countries. Over the last 10 years conditions have worsened dramatically, and although 15,000 still remain, more than half the Jewish population has already fled.

CHAVEZ’S CAMPAIGN against the Jews has three principal components. The first is the systematic stigmatizing of Israel as a “bloodthirsty,” “oppressive,” “genocidal” and “monstrous” country (quoted from Chavez and his officials) that disregards basic human decency and arrogantly defies international law. The second is the objectification of Jews as Zionists, seamlessly tying the Jews to the imagined evils and horror of the Israeli state. Statements such as “Zionism is Nazism” abound, both on the streets and in parliament.

All of this takes place in the context of anti-capitalist class warfare, in which “enemies of the people” are labeled by the government-controlled media to provide both justification and an outlet for bitter frustration and anger. This strategy was used to great effect in the national socialist movements of the 20th century, where Jews were specifically targeted as “elitist” to subject them to the anger and resentment of collectivist masses.

With crime exploding to astonishing levels, and disastrous economic policies destroying the middle class, Chavez is applying this same model. He uses his charisma and populist appeal to instill hatred of Jews and capitalists in his supporters, who are mainly from the lower class, the military and those who profit from his power. . .

There is public documentation of more than 400 anti-Semitic and anti-Israel public statements made by government officials since the expulsion [of Israeli diplomats in January], including a call to action in a state-run newspaper urging Venezuelans to “challenge Jews” where they live and work. “Denounce publicly, with names and last names, the members of the powerful Jewish groups present in Venezuela, indicating the companies they own to establish a boycott.”

(Via the Corner.)

I wonder if this is a reason for Chavez’s new alliance with Iran, or a consequence of it.

Ralph Peters looks at the foreign policy scorecard:

The Carter administration is starting to look like a model of manly strength, courage and patriotism.

(Via Power Line.)

In most of the Muslim world, Israel is the all-purpose scapegoat for anything bad that happens.  Whatever atrocity is committed, and no matter how clear it is who perpetrated it, it was actually an Israeli conspiracy (or perhaps an American one).  For example, throughout the Muslim world, the overwhelming majority believe that Osama bin Laden was not connected to 9/11.  The popular choices for the real perpetrators are Israel, the US, or some vague “non-Muslim terrorists.”

The latter theory is popular in Pakistan (and probably Bangladesh, which was not surveyed).  There, in the Subcontinent, India rather than Israel takes the role of the all-purpose scapegoat.  Here’s two stories from a couple of weeks ago.  The first regards the terrorist attack in Pakistan on the Sri Lankan cricket team.  Among the Pakistani talking heads, it was clear that the culprit was not Pakistani terrorists, but an Indian conspiracy:

FOR many foreigners, events in Lahore, the capital of Punjab province, on March 3rd confirmed their view of Pakistan as a hotbed of terrorism. A dozen masked gunmen ambushed a convoy carrying Sri Lanka’s national cricket team, killing six policemen and two others, and wounding seven cricketers and a British coach. But for many Pakistani pundits, quick to appear on television, events fitted another familiar pattern: Pakistan as victim of Indian conspiracy.

In January Punjab’s intelligence service had warned the police that India’s spies were planning to attack the Sri Lankan team. Now the pundits claimed the ambush was intended as retaliation for the attack on Mumbai in November in which more than 170 people were killed, to show that Pakistan was a security risk. As evidence, they pointed to the assailants’ escape: Pakistan’s Islamist terrorists, went the argument, make sure to kill themselves as well as their victims. To bolster their case, they cited India’s crowing over its decision not to send its own cricket team, for which Sri Lanka’s was standing in, and its leaders’ complaints, after the attack, about Pakistan’s intact terrorist “infrastructure”.

This far-fetched analysis, and the refusal to accept the reality of Pakistan’s terrorist problem, owes much to the religious-nationalist leanings of many young but influential television presenters. Their opinions were formed by the distorted education they received under General Zia ul-Haq, Pakistan’s dictator from 1977-88. So, despite many occasions when al-Qaeda has claimed attacks in Pakistan, many Pakistanis refuse to believe the group exists, let alone that it is dangerous for their country.

The terrorists’ escape, and the fact that India accurately judged Pakistan as unsafe, are both evidence that India was responsible. Awesome.

India, it seems, has a long reach.  Because at the same time as it was orchestrating a terrorist attack on Sri Lankan cricketers, it is also accused of instigating a mutiny in Bangladesh:

EVEN as the corpses of 56 army officers—victims of a mutiny on February 25th and 26th by Bangladesh’s paramilitary border force—were being retrieved from a mass grave and sewers in Dhaka, the conspiracy histories were being written.

Rabid nationalists, on the fringe of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), blamed India for the uprising, which occurred at the huge headquarters of the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) force, then flared at paramilitary camps around the country.

In Bangladesh, at least, the India theory was only one of many conspiracies used to explain the mutiny.

The Economist reports that things have worked out very well for Colombia:

A YEAR ago Colombia’s neighbours condemned it for sending troops into Ecuador to bomb and overrun a camp of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The raid was a success: one of the FARC’s senior leaders, Raúl Reyes, was killed and Colombian forces grabbed three laptops containing vital intelligence, including evidence of the guerrillas’ contacts with the leftist governments of Ecuador and Venezuela. Since then Colombia’s American-backed drive to crush the FARC has made further progress. The guerrillas have lost other leaders and suffered desertions. A group of prominent hostages they were holding was rescued in July. On March 2nd the army said it had killed another FARC leader, José de Jesús Guzmán, alias “Gaitán”, suspected of organising bombings in the capital, Bogotá.

After last year’s raid, Ecuador and Venezuela severed diplomatic relations with Colombia and sent troops to their borders with it. Other South American countries, even moderate Brazil, condemned the incursion. Two regional clubs, the Organisation of American States (OAS) and the Rio Group, expressed disapproval. However, within weeks of the raid, Colombia’s President Álvaro Uribe was again on backslapping terms with President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela. Mr Uribe smoothed things over with Brazil on a recent visit there. Relations with Ecuador remain cut but overall, says Alfredo Rangel, a security analyst in Bogotá, Colombia has paid a “small diplomatic price”.

The diplomatic price has certainly been insignificant when weighed against the enormous intelligence benefits they gained from the raid. FARC is all but defeated now.

But, relations are still frosty between Colombia and Ecuador:

[Ecuadorean President Rafael] Correa says relations will not be restored until certain conditions are met. These include Colombia improving its border security to stop the FARC crossing into Ecuador. Mr Correa also wants the Colombians to give a full report of their raid on his country’s territory, including all the information they found on the FARC’s computers. . . Finally, Mr Correa wants Colombia to stop “defaming” his government by revealing what the computers told it about the rebels’ links to Ecuadorean officials.

Let me get this straight.  FARC is a guerilla army fighting the Colombian government (on the occasions it’s not functioning as a mere criminal gang), and Ecuador gave them save haven, but it’s Colombia’s responsibility to keep them from using that safe haven?  Also, Ecuador wants to know all the intelligence that Colombia gained.  Surely only a cynic would wonder if it might somehow get turned over to FARC. Finally, they want Colombia to stop showing the world proof of the ties between FARC and Ecuador.  If that’s the price of good relations, I’m sure Colombia will be content with bad ones.

A troubling report from Pajamas Media.  (Via Instapundit.)

The Washington Post finds that China’s Olympic promises were entirely fraudulent (shocking, I know):

When Ji Sizun heard that the Chinese government had agreed to create three special zones in Beijing for peaceful public protests during the 2008 Summer Olympics, he celebrated. He said in an interview at the time that he believed the offer was sincere and represented the beginning of a new era for human rights in China.

Ji, 59, a self-taught legal advocate who had spent 10 years fighting against corrupt officials in his home province of Fujian on China’s southeastern coast, immediately packed his bags and was one of the first in line in Beijing to file his application to protest.

It is now clear that his hope was misplaced.

In the end, official reports show, China never approved a single protest application — despite its repeated pledges to improve its human rights record when it won the bid to host the Games. Some would-be applicants were taken away by force by security officials and held in hotels to prevent them from filing the paperwork. Others were scared away by warnings that they could face “difficulties” if they went through with their applications.

Ji has spent the past eight months in various states of arrest and detention. In January, he was sentenced to three years in prison, the maximum penalty allowed, on charges of faking official seals on documents he filed on behalf of his clients. Ji is appealing. . .

Since the Games in August, the situation for the Chinese citizens who had tried to apply for the Olympics permits has worsened, and some of the more outspoken applicants, such as Ji, have been harassed or detained.

Two women from Beijing in their late 70s, Wu Dianyuan and Wang Xiuying, were sentenced to a year of reeducation in a labor camp for protesting their forced eviction from their homes in 2001; the sentence was reduced and later rescinded, but the women said in an interview that they are being closely monitored by local police and that cameras have been installed outside their homes.

Tang Xuecheng, an entrepreneur in his 40s who had gone to Beijing to protest the government’s seizure of his mining company, was detained by local officials and sent to a “mental hospital for mental health assessment,” according to a public security official in his home town in Chenzhou city in Hunan province. Tang was released several months later.

Zhong Ruihua, 62, and nine others from the industrial city of Liuzhou who tried to petition against property seizures were arrested and have been charged with disturbing the public order.

(Emphasis mine.) (Via Hot Air.)

It’s not just human rights, either.  The Beijing Olympics oppressed the Chinese people in material ways as well.

EL Universal reports:

Venezuela’s President ordered his governors and mayors to draw “the map of the media war” to determine which media are “owned by oligarchs.” . . .

Chávez said that “were it not for the attacks, the lies, manipulation and exaggeration of the mistakes of the government” by the private media, the popularity of his government would be 80 percent instead of 60 percent or 70 percent, as he claims to have.

“Every mayor, in every city council must make an analysis. How many radio stations are there? What is the content of the programs? Every governor in his or her respective state must do the same analysis. Let us draw a map of the media war. With respect to the newspapers, how many newspapers are owned by the oligarchs in Aragua state, in the municipality of Zamora? There is also a media war on the Internet. There is a daily battle. I beg you to put at the forefront of this battle,” Chávez said.

(Via Reason, via Instapundit.)

The military balked at Chavez’s earlier attempt to create a police state, so now he’s doing it in slow motion.

Hugo Chavez is well on the way to destroying Venezuela’s oil industry, so he’s starting in on the food industry:

President Hugo Chavez seized a local unit of American food giant Cargill on Wednesday and threatened to nationalize Venezuela’s largest private company, Polar, as he demanded industry produce cheaper rice.

The clash with the food companies came less than three weeks after Chavez, a Cuba ally who has nationalized swaths of the Venezuelan economy, won a referendum on allowing him to run for reelection. . .

In recent days Chavez has seized some Polar rice mills after accusing the food industry of skirting his price controls and failing to produce enough cheap rice.

U.S. company Cargill, which operates one rice mill in Venezuela, said earlier in the week it was expecting a visit from officials even though it does not produce the type of rice that is at the center of the dispute. . .

Polar, which is the country’s largest private sector employer and produces and distributes everything from beer to flour, has vowed to take legal action over the rice mill takeovers.

(Via Hot Air.)

I don’t tend to go in for historical determinism, but this chain of events has been very predictable.  Chavez’s policies lead to runaway inflation (and a horrific surge in crime rates).  Food prices soar.  Chavez institutes price controls on food.  Price controls create shortages (as they always do) when businesses refuse to sell at a loss.  Chavez then nationalizes the businesses.

What happens next?  Agricultural production plummets under government administration, of course.  Venezuela becomes even more dependent on food imports (Venezuela already imports two-thirds of its food, half of that from the United States).  Those foreign food suppliers won’t sell at a loss and can’t be nationalized, so food shortages become severe.

What is Bakiyev up to?

Kyrgyzstan is willing to negotiate a new deal allowing American troops to operate there despite its recent decision to evict the U.S. from an air base essential to the war in Afghanistan, the president’s spokesman said Thursday.

The Central Asian nation last month ordered the United States to vacate the Manas air base within six months. President Kurmanbek Bakiyev announced the closure shortly after Russia pledged $2.15 billion in aid and loans for impoverished former Soviet nation.

Presidential spokesman Almaz Turdumamatov said the decision on Manas would not be changed but indicated that a separate arrangement allowing U.S. troops in the country could be negotiated.

“The decision on the base is final and by this year every last American soldier will have left the territory of Kyrgyzstan,” he said. “Notwithstanding, the doors for negotiation with the United States are open and we are prepared to consider a new agreement.” 

Charles Krauthammer puts the Russia-Iran diplomatic debacle in a nutshell:

This is smart diplomacy? This is a debacle. The Russians dismissed it contemptuously.

Look, if we could get the Iranian nuclear program stopped with Russian’s helping us in return for selling out the Poles and the Czechs on missile defense, I’m enough of a cynic and a realist to say we would do it the same way that Kissinger agreed to delegitimize and de-recognize Taiwan in return for a large strategic opening with China.

But Kissinger had it done. He had it wired. What happened here is it was leaked. The Russians have dismissed it. We end up being humiliated. We look weak in front of the Iranians, and we have left the Poles and Czechs out to dry in return for nothing.

The Czechs and the Poles went out on a limb, exposed themselves to Russian pressure, and we have shown that Eastern Europe is not as sovereign as it appears if the Russian influence is there, and we will acquiesce in what they consider their own sphere of influence.

This administration has prided itself, flattered itself on deploying smart diplomacy. “Smart diplomacy” is a meaningless idea, but if it has any meaning at all, it is not ever doing something as humiliating, amateurish, and stupid as this.

More here.

The Economist has a dismaying but unsurprising story on the surge of political killings in Russia.

We were told that President Obama was going to be strengthening our international alliances after the damage done by President Bush. So far, not so much.  Most recently, Obama decided to pay the British a gratuitous insult:

A bust of the former prime minister once voted the greatest Briton in history, which was loaned to George W Bush from the Government’s art collection after the September 11 attacks, has now been formally handed back.

The bronze by Sir Jacob Epstein, worth hundreds of thousands of pounds if it were ever sold on the open market, enjoyed pride of place in the Oval Office during President Bush’s tenure. But when British officials offered to let Mr Obama to hang onto the bust for a further four years, the White House said: “Thanks, but no thanks.” . . .

The rejection of the bust has left some British officials nervously reading the runes to see how much influence the UK can wield with the new regime in Washington.

(Via the Corner.)

The decorating of the Oval Office is a matter of pure symbolism. Unencumbered by any practical significance, the rejection of the bust cannot be seen as anything but an insult.  To insult the UK so, at a time when we are depending on them to intensify their efforts in Afghanistan, is profoundly unwise.  This is another unforced error by President Obama.

Elliott Abrams interviewed by the Jerusalem Post:

Q. Why were you skeptical [about a resolution of the conflict]?

A. Because others said that the solution here, the eventual deal, was pretty well understood on both sides – that there weren’t a million possibilities for where the border between Israel and the Palestinian state would be. The same with regard to Jerusalem. Therefore, they said, it won’t take all that much negotiating to get there. That was the conventional wisdom. But it seemed to me that the opposite view was right: that if everybody knows what a deal has to look like, and year after year and decade after decade, it is not possible to reach it, isn’t it obvious that it’s because neither side wants that deal?

(Via Power Line.)

Well, it’s obvious that at least one side doesn’t want the deal, anyway.

Mugabe is making backup plans, in case he is forced from office:

ZIMBABWE’S President Robert Mugabe and his wife Grace have secretly bought a £4m bolt-hole in the Far East while his country struggles with hyper-inflation, mass unemployment and a cholera epidemic.

The Mugabes’ house, in an exclusive residential complex in Hong Kong, was purchased on their behalf by a middleman through a shadowy company whose registered office is in a run-down tenement block. When a reporter and a photographer called at the house last week, they were attacked by the Zimbabwean occupants. The assailants were questioned by the police.

The property came to light during a Sunday Times investigation into the Mugabes’ financial interests in Asia, where a web of associates has helped them to spend lavishly on luxuries and stash away millions in bank accounts. In Zimbabwe, meanwhile, inflation has reached 231m%, unemployment stands at 94% and 3,467 people have died in recent months from cholera.

(Via LGF.)

The UN is softening its longstanding anti-Israel stance, Fox News reports:

A United Nations agency’s suspension Friday of aid into Gaza is the latest in a series this week of tougher stances against Hamas — in contrast to the U.N.’s criticisms of Israel during its battle with Hamas in Gaza in late December and January.

The suspension of aid was in response to armed Hamas militants on Thursday stealing hundreds of tons of food intended for Palestinians by armed Hamas militants.

Also this week, the U.N. reversed its earlier claims that Israeli Defense Forces had bombed a school in Gaza administered by the United Nations Relief Works Agency (UNRWA). On Tuesday, the U.N.’s Office for Humanitarian Affairs issued a report on the Jan. 6 incident that claimed the lives of 43 Palestinians, stating that “the shelling, and all of the fatalities, took place outside rather than inside the school.”

Separately, Radhika Coomaraswamy, U.N. special representative for children and armed conflict told the Jerusalem Post on Thursday that the organization will investigate the use by Hamas of children as human shields during the three-week Israeli military operation in Gaza.

This is very strange.  I wonder what accounts for the shift, and how long it will last.

The AP reports:

Venezuela’s state oil company is behind on billions in payments to private oil contractors from Oklahoma to Belarus, some of which have now stopped work, even as President Hugo Chavez funnels more oil revenue to social programs.

Petroleos de Venezuela SA, or PDVSA, says unpaid invoices jumped 39 percent in the first nine months of last year — reaching $7.86 billion in September. And that was when world oil was selling for $100 a barrel.

With prices plummeting by more than half, PDVSA is trying to renegotiate some contracts. But analysts say hardball tactics to reduce charges from crucial service providers could backfire by lowering Venezuela’s oil output. And foreign debt markets are reflecting jitters about Venezuela’s finances.

Oh swell:

Abdul Qadeer Khan, the scientist who helped Pakistan develop nuclear weapons and allegedly leaked atomic secrets to North Korea, Iran and Libya, was freed from years of de facto house arrest Friday by a high court ruling.

The United States, which worries that Iran has used Pakistani know-how in pursuit of nuclear arms, said the disgraced scientist’s release would be “extremely regrettable.” State Department spokesman Gordon Duguid said Khan remained a “serious proliferation risk.”

The UN has its priorities.  Delivering relief supplies may be important, but it has to take a back seat to generating anti-Israeli propaganda. In a recent incident, the UN Relief and Works Agency instigated an incident with Israeli border guards and coordinated the incident with the media:

The office of the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories slammed UNRWA on Monday and accused the United Nations organization of creating a provocation at the Kerem Shalom crossing by bringing trucks to it carrying supplies that had not been approved by Israel for entry into the Gaza Strip.

On Monday, the Kerem Shalom crossing was opened for the delivery of humanitarian supplies to Gaza, including some 50 trucks with supplies provided by UNRWA. The night before, UNRWA had asked the Gaza Coordination and Liaison Administration to permit the transfer of paper and plastic bags to Gaza, and had been told the request was under consideration.

Despite not having received approval, UNRWA, COGAT officials said, drove several trucks carrying the supplies from Jerusalem to the crossing and coordinated their arrival with several media outlets, which filmed the trucks being turned away.

(Emphasis mine.) (Via Hot Air.)

I find it remarkable that Israel continues to allow the UN to operate in its country, despite how the UN routinely collaborates with Israel’s enemies.

The Telegraph reports:

Subordinates have begun openly to defy Mr Putin, a man whose diktat has inspired fear and awe in the echelons of power for nine years, according to government sources. Meanwhile a rift is emerging between Mr Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev, the figurehead whom he groomed as his supposedly pliant successor.

As Russia’s economy begins to implode after years of energy-driven growth, Mr Putin is facing the germs of an unexpected power struggle which could hamper his ambition to project Russian might abroad.

Mounting job losses and a collapse in the price of commodities have triggered social unrest on a scale not seen for at least four years, prompting panic among Kremlin officials more accustomed to the political apathy of the Russian people.

(Via Instapundit.)

You can’t help but smile a little bit at this, but an unstable Russia carries risks of its own.

Jonathan Reynolds writes:

A while back, I asked if Zimbabwe had “won” the unfortunate honor of having the world’s largest banknote. One of our sharp readers, Timothy Abbot, pointed out that this distinction went to Yugoslavia with a 500 Billion note.

Well, according to this International Herald Tribune story , Zimbabwe has blown the top off the record with a 100 TRILLION Zim dollar note. . .  The Mugabe regime now qualify as the most incompetent economic managers in modern history. Congrats, guys — it’s a hard won title, but well deserved.

(Via Instapundit.)

AP reports.

It’s said that Albert Einstein once defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.  Michael Ledeen says that’s exactly what we’re doing with Iran.

UPDATE: Sure enough, we got the same result this time as every other:

US President Barack Obama’s offer to talk to Iran shows that America’s policy of “domination” has failed, the government spokesman said on Saturday. . .

After nearly three decades of severed ties, Obama said shortly after taking office this month that he is willing to extend a diplomatic hand to Tehran if the Islamic republic is ready to “unclench its fist”.

In response, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad launched a fresh tirade against the United States, demanding an apology for its “crimes” against Iran and saying he expected “deep and fundamental” change from Obama.

(Via LGF.)

I thought that the Obama administration was supposed to strengthen tattered alliances, not tatter strong ones:

Although Colombia’s President Alvaro Uribe sent a courteous message to welcome President Obama, Colombian officials have grown frustrated in the last two years, warning Democrats their friendship, which has cost them much blood and treasure, had limits.

Referring to a rejection of free trade, Colombia’s vice president, Francisco Santos, said last year: “Colombia plays such a vital role in the continent for U.S. interests that it would be geostrategic suicide to make a decision like that. I wonder who wants to be the one who loses Colombia like they lost China in the 1950s.”

Also last year, Trade Minister Luis Plata warned IBD that denying free trade to Colombia in a hemisphere full of U.S. free-trade treaties amounted to sanctions on an ally because the other countries with which America has agreements are its competitors.

In Santos’ view, it would be “an insult” and a “slap in the face.” Failure to pass the treaty, he said, “I’m sure will lead to a fundamental repositioning of relations between Colombia and the U.S.”

(Via Hot Air.)

Recall the Democrats changed the House rules to avoid a vote on the pact, for no reason whatsoever.  Even Jimmy Carter supports it.

Lest we forget who Hamas is:

Hamas militiamen have rounded up hundreds of Fatah activists on suspicion of “collaboration” with Israel during Operation Cast Lead, Fatah members in the Gaza Strip told The Jerusalem Post on Monday. . .

The Fatah members and eyewitnesses said the detainees were being held in school buildings and hospitals that Hamas had turned into make-shift interrogation centers. . .

A Fatah official in Ramallah told the Post that at least 100 of his men had been killed or wounded as a result of the massive Hamas crackdown. Some had been brutally tortured, he added.

The official said that the perpetrators belonged to Hamas’s armed wing, Izaddin Kassam, and to the movement’s Internal Security Force.

According to the official, at least three of the detainees had their eyes put out by their interrogators, who accused them of providing Israel with wartime information about the location of Hamas militiamen and officials.

A number of Hamas leaders and spokesmen have claimed in the past few days that Fatah members in the Gaza Strip had been spying on their movement and passing the information to Israel.

(Via Instapundit.)

Of course, neither Fatah nor Hamas has a history of honesty, so we can’t necessarily trust Fatah’s claims, but so far Hamas doesn’t seem to be denying the claim.

Gateway Pundit notes that a German court has okayed the flying of Hamas flags, which makes sense from a free-speech perspective, but at the same time:

German police officials in the cities of Duisburg and Düsseldorf, located in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, prohibited pro-Israeli supporters from displaying Israeli flags.

During an anti-Israeli demonstration organized by the radical Islamic group, Milli Görüs, which attracted 10,000 protesters last Saturday in Duisburg, two police officers stormed the apartment of a 25-year-old student and his 26-year-old girlfriend and seized Israeli flags hanging on the balcony and inside a window.

The hostile crowd pelted stones and other objects at the flags.

A video that appears on YouTube shows an angry crowd in front of the apartment house and the police forcibly seizing the Israeli flags. The confiscation of the flags was greeted by cheers from the anti-Israeli protesters. . .

When asked if the Duisburg police plan to confiscate Israeli flags from supporters who demonstrate against an anti-Israeli protest slated for this coming Saturday, Ramon van der Maat, a Duisburg police spokesman, told The Jerusalem Post that, “we have to see what is expected” at the protest, adding, “It depends on the situation and one cannot, across the board” say that Israeli flags will be permitted.

You might think that Germany would be a little more sensitive about this sort of thing.

(Via Instapundit.)

An Indian newspaper, the Hindu, has obtained a dossier of evidence relating to the Mumbai attacks and Pakistan’s involvement. Power Line posts some excerpts of phone conversations contained therein.

Having glanced through the dossier, I have to say that the evidence is utterly damning. It includes lots of equipment manufactured in Pakistan, and GPS devices that show the terrorists’ route from Pakistan to Mumbai and their intended route back. Whether the evidence shows Pakistani government involvement is not so clear, but there is some evidence to suggest it as well.

Michael Ledeen says so:

For some time now, the regime in Tehran has shown signs of urgency, sometimes verging on panic. Of late, the mullahs have organized raucus demonstrations in front of numerous embassies, including those of Egypt (with chants of “Death to Mubarak”), Jordan, Turkey, Great Britain, Germany and today (imagine!) France. These demonstrations were not mere gestures; the regime’s seriousness was underlined on Sunday, the 4th, when it offered a million-dollar reward to anyone who killed Mubarak (the Iranians called it a “revolutionary execution”). Significantly, the announcement came at a rally of the Basij, the most radical security force in the country, at which the Revolutionary Guards official Forooz Rejaii spoke. The Egyptians take it seriously; they have been on alert of late, looking for the possibility of a Mumbai-type operation in Cairo or elsewhere.

At the same time, the regime intensified its murderous assault against its own people, most notably hanging nine people on Christmas Eve, and assaulting the headquarters of Nobel Prize Winner Shirin Ebadi.

This intense tempo of activity bespeaks alarm in Tehran, which is fully justified by a number of setbacks. First of all, the dramatic drop in oil prices is devastating to the mullahs, who had planned to be able to fund terrorist proxies throughout the Middle East, Europe and the Americas. Suddenly their bottom line is tinged with red, and this carries over onto their domestic balance sheets, which were already demonstrably shaky (they were forced to cancel proposed new taxes when the merchant class staged nation-wide protests). No wonder they seize on any international event to call for petroleum export reductions. Just today they called for a drastic reduction of oil shipments to all countries that supported the Israeli military incursion into Gaza.

Second, their terror strategy has not been working as well as they wished and expected. Most American and European analysts have not appreciated the effect of the defeat of al Qaeda, Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guards in Iraq, but you can be sure that the high and mighty in Arab capitals have taken full notice. . .

Third, despite all their efforts to crush any sign of internal rebellion, many Iranians continue to publicly oppose the mullahs. A few weeks ago, students at universities all over the country demonstrated in significant numbers, and as one Iranian now living in Europe put it to me, “they were surprised that the regime was unable to stop the protests, even though everyone knew they were planned.” This is the background for the new wave of repression, accompanied by an intensification of jamming on the Internet, and an ongoing reshuffle of the instruments of repression; Khamanei and Ahmadinejad have no confidence in the efficacy or blind loyalty of the army or of large segments of the Revolutionary Guards. Most public actions are carried out by the Basij, who are judged more reliable, and repression is less in the hands of the traditional ministries than in new groups freshly minted in the Supreme Leader’s office. . .

I have long argued that the Iranian regime is fundamentally hollow, that much of its apparent strength is bluster and deception rather than real power and resolve.  At a minimum, it is a regime that must constantly fear for its own survival, not because of any willful resolve from its external enemies but because of the simmering hatred from its own people.  This is a moment when those people are, as so often in the recent past, looking for at least a few supportive actions.  If the West is now convinced that Iran is the proximate cause and chief sponsor of Hamas’ assault against Israel, it should demonstrate once and for all that we are prepared to fight back.

(Via Instapundit.)

Ledeen has been arguing for those supportive actions for a long time.  In his 2002 book, he argued that the Iranian regime could be overthrown without military action, principally by diplomatic efforts to strengthen its internal enemies.  Unfortunately, President Bush failed to do anything about Iran, leaving the problem to President Obama.

Is there any reason to believe that Obama is up to the task?  His promise to meet unconditionally with Ahmedinejad is cause for pessimism, but it’s clear Obama knows that pledge was a mistake.  Typically, he was unable to admit his mistake, but he did backpedal in every possible way, so we can view the pledge as withdrawn.

Moreover, the idea of overthrowing Iran without military action would have to be attractive to Obama, who needs to show that he is serious about national security but nothing at all like President Bush.  His National Security Advisor, Jim Jones, is well-regarded in the right circles and should give him good advice.

At least, that’s what I’m telling myself.

Blowing their wad on a war of aggression looks like a blunder now:

There are many oft-quoted indicators of Russia’s suffering economy — the nation’s international reserves have fallen by more than 25 percent since August; the major stock indices recently plummeted by 70 percent; and the ruble has been sliding — it’s now selling at exchange houses for about 30 to the dollar, compared with 23.5 five months ago.

Beyond those figures and the analysis of financial experts, however, on the streets of Moscow — a city that has known much tumult during the past century — there is for many Russians a deep sense of fear, a feeling of being underneath a gathering, dark wave of hard economic times.

Only last spring, downtown Moscow was a place where Russia’s nouveau riche walked out the door of boutiques with fists full of bags from Hermes, Cartier and Gucci. . .

That was before the war with Georgia in August, which kicked off an exodus of foreign capital; the global financial crunch, which dried up lines of credit used by heavily leveraged Russian businessmen; and, finally, the crash of oil prices that had underwritten much of the boom.

(Via Instapundit.)

The Economist reports that coups and attempted coups are becoming much less common.  I wonder why.

Zimbabwe asks Bush to leave office quietly.  (Via the Corner.)

I think that Mugabe complaining of election irregularities was better, but this is pretty good.

China blocks the New York Times and other web sites, reversing the liberalization of speech it permitted as the Olympics approached.

Hosting the Olympics didn’t lead to lasting change in Chinese human rights?  I’m shocked!

The Economist reports:

SEVEN months short of a presidential election, an immaculately robed Shia cleric living in comfortable semi-retirement is making Iranians hold their political breath. When Muhammad Khatami stepped down as Iran’s president three years ago, his plans to reform Iran in tatters, he gave every impression that he had left politics for good. Now, his friends attest, he is pondering a comeback. . .

Mr Khatami’s change of heart stems from his anger at what followed [his departure]. Elected on a platform of social justice, Mr Ahmadinejad has squandered Iran’s huge oil revenues on inflationary handouts, cares little for human rights and embarrassed many of his compatriots with his undiplomatic pronouncements, among them his suggestion that Israel should not exist. Many Iranians now remember Mr Khatami’s tenure, when the authorities relaxed their grip, just a little, on the ordinary Iranian and the president won plaudits for his charm and moderation, as a golden age.

Last June Ireland rejected European transnationalism, as Europeans do whenever they’re offered the chance. The EU almost managed to avoid any public vote on the Lisbon treaty, but that pesky Irish constitution stood in the way.  Now, the Eurocrats are doing whenever the voters reject their plans — trying again.

In July, Irish public sentiment was overwhelmingly against a re-do but I guess things must have softened.  Remember, the only thing that’s fine is a yes vote.  Everything you need to know about the Lisbon treaty is summarized here.

(Via the Corner.)

They refuse to meet with Jimmy Carter.  (Via the Corner.)

Good for them:

Election officials began counting ballots late Sunday in one of Africa’s rare democracies, where voters are painfully aware of the example they are setting on a continent better known for coups, rigged elections and one-man rule. . .

A lot is riding on Ghana’s election, not just for the nation of 23 million but also for Africa as a whole. Like its neighbors, Ghana has a history of coups and one-party rule, but since the 1990s when coup leader Jerry Rawlings agreed to hold elections, it has been on a fast track to democracy. It has held four elections since 1992, first bringing Rawlings to power, then current President John Kufuor, who is stepping down after two terms in office.

When he does, it will mark the country’s second successive transfer of power from one democratically elected leader to another, a litmus test of a mature democracy that only a handful of African nations have passed.

They could have left out the “African” qualifier.

AP: Think tanks say Obama should shift focus from Iraq to Iran.

Zimbabwe’s army is getting restless, as it is no longer getting paid any more than the general public.

The least surprising story of the day:

President Hugo Chavez asked supporters to propose a constitutional reform that would allow him to seek indefinite re-election and govern through 2019, giving him more time to build a socialist economy in Venezuela.

On the other hand, this is a little interesting:

Chavez also threatened Sunday to expel Colombia’s top diplomat in Maracaibo, Venezuela’s second largest city, after he privately welcomed opposition victories in five key races during last week’s gubernatorial and municipal elections.

In a private telephone conversation apparently recorded by Venezuelan intelligence agents, Carlos Galvis called the opposition’s gains “very good news.” The recording was then broadcast on state television by talk show host Alberto Noria.

It’s not surprising that Venezuela is spying on Colombian diplomats, but it is a little surprising that they would broadcast the proceeds on television.  It’s surprising, not because it causes an international incident (Chavez seems to love those), but because it probably compromised a Venezuelan intelligence capability.  Why would he do that?  It sounds a little like desperation, but I wouldn’t have thought that Chavez was there yet.

Fox News reports:

The attackers specifically targeted Britons, Americans and Israelis at the hotels and restaurant, witnesses said.

Alex Chamberlain, a British citizen who was dining at the Oberoi, told Sky News television that a gunman ushered 30 to 40 people from the restaurant into a stairway and, speaking in Hindi or Urdu, ordered everyone to put up their hands.

“They were talking about British and Americans specifically. There was an Italian guy, who, you know, they said: ‘Where are you from?” and he said he’s from Italy and they said ‘fine’ and they left him alone. And I thought: ‘Fine, they’re going to shoot me if they ask me anything — and thank God they didn’t,” he said.

On the other hand, Russians were released:

Terrorists holed up inside Mumbai’s Taj and Trident-Oberoi hotels allowed 17 Russian hostages, including nine defence contractors, to leave after checking their passports, following which they were safely evacuated.

Earlier on Thursday, spokesman of Russian arms exporting company ‘Rosoboron export’ had confirmed that nine of its specialists working on various defence projects in India were safely evacuated from the Taj hotel.

(Via Classical Values and Barcepundit, via Instapundit.)

Plus a terror threat against New York’s mass transit.  Sounds like terrorism isn’t dead after all.

Reuters reports.  Talk that the pact was in trouble came to nothing, as it passed 149-49.

The NYT reports:

President Hugo Chávez’s supporters suffered defeat in several state and municipal races on Sunday, with the opposition retaining power in Zulia, the country’s most populous state, and winning crucial races here in the capital, the National Electoral Council said.

But:

The results will be a test for Venezuela’s beleaguered political institutions, depending on how the president reacts.

Despite the inroads made by the opposition, followers of Mr. Chávez still control the Supreme Court, the National Assembly, the federal bureaucracy and every state company.

Mr. Chávez recently signaled that he might move to pick new regional officials, effectively diminishing the power of opponents elected elsewhere by voters.

(Via the Corner.)

Kissinger’s famous quip seems very apt for this news:

Tension mounted Sunday between pirates holding a Saudi tanker and Islamist fighters threatening to attack them, with a week remaining for the ship’s owners to meet a 25-million-dollar ransom demand.

“If the pirates want peace, they had better release the tanker,” Sheikh Ahmed, a spokesman for the Shebab group in the coastal region of Harardhere, told AFP by phone.

The UN Human Rights Council spent $23 million in foreign aid money on a mural:

The U.N. Human Rights Council, frequently accused of coddling some of the world’s most repressive governments, threw itself a party in Geneva Tuesday that featured the unveiling of a $23 million mural paid for in part with foreign aid funds.

In a ceremony attended by U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, Spanish artist Miquel Barcelo told the press that his 16,000-square-foot ceiling artwork reminded him of “an image of the world dripping toward the sky” — but it reminded critics of money slipping out of relief coffers.

“In Spain there’s a controversy because they took money out of the foreign aid budget — took money from starving children in Africa — and spent it on colorful stalactites,” said Hillel Neuer, executive director of U.N. Watch.

Michael Rubin writes that efforts to bring Damascus into America’s orbit are doomed to fail, and will probably hurt American interests in the process.

Why does Assad flirt with the West? He derives his power from rejection of the West and Israel, but he knows history. He understands that he can both embrace process and ignore peace. So long as the West conflates diplomacy and inducement, Assad can pocket irreversible incentives: A reprieve from the Rafik Hariri murder investigation, concessions on territorial disputes, an end to sanctions and heightened trade.

When the time comes to reciprocate, Assad can walk away, as his father so often did, leaving Washington with far less leverage than before.

I hope he’s wrong, but I doubt it.

Whatever:

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that a bill that would extend the Russian president’s term to six years was not tailored for him and would be a boost for democracy in the country.

The measure could pave the way for a new 12-year presidency for Putin if he decides to seek Russia’s highest office again. Lawmakers are moving to fast-track the constitutional change that President Dmitry Medvedev submitted to parliament Tuesday.

Putin said the change “has no personal dimension” and cast it as aiding democracy — which critics say was rolled back dramatically during his two four-year presidential terms.

Fox News reports:

Barack Obama had been president-elect for all of one day last week when Russian President Dmitry Medvedev called him out, reminding many of vice president-to-be Joe Biden’s warning that America’s enemies would test the new president with an international crisis within six months.

In his first state-of-the-nation address, Medvedev threatened to move short-range missiles to Russia’s borders with NATO countries to counter America’s plan to build a missile defense shield in Poland.

Medvedev didn’t congratulate Obama or mention him by name in his nationally televised 85-minute address, during which he blamed Washington for the war in Georgia and the world financial crisis and suggested it was up to Washington to mend badly damaged ties.

“It was a really unfortunate time to make this type of statement, just when Obama was elected,” said Dimitri K. Simes, president of The Nixon Center and author of “After the Collapse: Russia Seeks Its Place as a Great Power.”

“It was a poor way to communicate the interest Russia has in the new beginning of the United States,” Simes said.

A poor way? To the contrary, I think Medvedev conveyed precisely the interest Russia has in the new American administration. Those who think that Russia (and Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, etc.) are opposed not to America, but merely to President Bush, are going to find themselves greatly disappointed.

Hint: they’re not adding checks and balances.

Sometimes oppression is just weird:

Vietnam is considering banning small-chested drivers from its roads — a proposal that has provoked widespread disbelief in this nation of slight people.

The Ministry of Health recently recommended that people whose chests measure fewer than 28 inches would be prohibited from driving motorbikes — as would those who are too short or too thin.

The proposal is part of an exhaustive list of new criteria the ministry has come up with to ensure that Vietnam’s drivers are in good health. As news of the plan was reported by the media this week, Vietnamese expressed incredulity. . .

It was not clear how the ministry established its size guidelines or why it thinks that small people make bad drivers. An official there declined to comment. . .

Motorbikes account for more than 90 percent of the vehicles on Vietnam’s chaotic roads.

(Via the Corner.)

I trust no one is shocked by this:

Nearly three years after the United Nations launched a highly publicized effort to crack down on fraud and waste, especially in its scandal-torn multi-billion-dollar procurement department, the clean-hands offensive is slowing down. And, its own watchdogs warn, other major areas of the U.N. bureaucracy are suffering from an alarming lack of scrutiny. . .

Those conclusions are contained in a pair of annual reports that have been submitted to the General Assembly by the U.N. watchdogs themselves, known as the Office of Internal Oversight Services (OIOS).

One of the reports covers the operations from July 1, 2007 to July 31, 2008, of the U.N.’s Procurement Task Force (PTF), which was set up in January 2006 to attack procurement corruption. The document also serves as an obituary of sorts for the PTF.

As the report notes, the task force is expected to disappear at the end of this year, strangled by lack of General Assembly funding. The task force will turn over more than 150 unexamined cases, including “several significant” fraud and corruption matters, to regular OIOS investigators, who may or may not be able to handle them.

The more damning document is a report on OIOS activities from June 2007 to June 2008 across the U.N., which is not limited merely to procurement. Its author, OIOS chief Inga-Britt Ahlenius, pointed out a number of U.N. “risk categories” that strongly hint that the scandals of the past could be repeated.

So a Korean newspaper is reporting.

Reuters reports:

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez threatened on Saturday to imprison his main political rival, intensifying a campaign against a man he calls a crime boss just a month before he faces tough regional elections.

Opposition leader Manuel Rosales, who lost to Chavez in the 2006 presidential vote, is governor of the oil producing state of Zulia and is running for mayor of its capital Maracaibo.

“I am determined to put Manuel Rosales behind bars. A swine like that has to be in prison,” Chavez said. . .

Chavez provided no specific evidence for the charges against the main leader of a fragmented opposition who has solid support in the oil-producing west of the OPEC nation. . .

Chavez has been campaigning vigorously for his candidates in gubernatorial and mayoral races in the November 23 election but may lose some key posts as Venezuelans worry about crime, inflation and poor public services, pollsters say.

Chavez often makes dramatic threats in speeches without immediately carrying them out. Still, he does follow through on enough of them over time for his threats to concern the people he targets.

(Via Instapundit.)

The AP reports:

An American university student in Iran to visit family and research women’s rights has been arrested and held in prison for more than a week, rights group Amnesty International said.

Esha Momeni, a student at California State University, Northridge, was driving on a highway in Tehran when she was stopped by authorities who said they were traffic police, the London-based Amnesty said.

Iranian officials said Momeni was arrested Oct. 15 for a traffic offense. But Amnesty said in a statement Tuesday she was taken to her family’s home where her computer and other materials related to her research on the Iranian women’s movement were confiscated.

Momeni, who is a member of the California branch of Change for Equality — an Iranian women’s rights group — was later taken to Evin prison, the Tehran facility notorious for holding political prisoners, Amnesty said.

Inside Higher Ed has more on Momeni, and others.

The Wall Street Journal reports:

Hemmed in by the global financial squeeze and commodities slump, Argentina’s leftist government has seemingly found a novel way to find the money to stay afloat: cracking open the piggybank of the nation’s private pension system.

The government proposed to nationalize the private pensions, which would provide it with much of the cash it needs to meet debt payments and avoid a second default this decade. . . The private system has about $30 billion in assets and generates about $5 billion in new contributions each year.

While no one knows for sure what the government would do with the private system, economists said nationalization would let the government raid new pension contributions to cover short-term debts due in coming years. . .

Argentina is doubly hurt. Having stiffed creditors as recently as 2001, it has few prospects of returning to international lending markets soon. Economists who were critical of the nationalization proposal said it reinforced Argentina’s image as a renegade in financial circles.

The private pension system was created as an alternative to state pension funds in 1994, when conservative President Carlos Saúl Menem ran Argentina and free-market policies were in vogue in Latin America. Countries in the region followed the example of Chile, which had privatized pensions in 1981. In Argentina, workers have the option of paying into individual retirement accounts run by pension funds rather than the government.

Three million Argentines do so. They can track their accounts and have some say over how the pension funds invest the money, making the system somewhat like U.S. 401(k) accounts. After a nationalization, it’s presumed the government-run system would absorb the private funds.

It’s just the latest in the Argentine horror show:

Mrs. Kirchner won’t have trouble making the case for expropriation to Congress, which is controlled by her fellow Peronists. When the Argentine government ran out of money in 2001, it blamed the market and increased its own role in the economy. Since then it has imposed price controls, defaulted on its debt, seized dollar bank accounts, devalued the currency, nationalized businesses and tried to set confiscatory tax rates with the aim of making society more “fair.” Mrs. Kirchner and her predecessor (and husband) Nestór Kirchner have also preserved the Peronist tradition of big spending.

All of this has been deemed acceptable because of the “crisis.”

You spend your entire life saving for retirement, and then the government takes it away. It could never happen here, right? The Democrats might abolish 401(k)s in favor a government-owned plan, but they would never confiscate existing ones, would they?

(Via Power Line.)

The AP reports:

North Korea will make an “important announcement” on Monday amid speculation over the health of its leader Kim Jong Il, a Japanese newspaper reported Sunday. . .  Quoting unidentified sources at Japan’s defense ministry, the Sankei said Tokyo had information that “there will be an important announcement on (Oct.) 20th.”

The Sankei said there was speculation within the Japanese government that the North’s announcement could be about Kim’s death or a government change induced by a coup.

North Korea will also ban foreigners from entering the country starting Monday, it said, without giving further details.

The London Times reports:

Sergei Ivanov, deputy to Vladimir Putin, the prime minister, promised that Russia’s intentions were entirely peaceful despite its invasion of Georgia. Moscow officials insist that its military operations in August were provoked by Georgian aggression.

“We are not aggressive,” Ivanov said in an interview. “We have recognised the territorial integrity of all former Soviet republics. That was in 1991. Russia, of course, has no territorial ambitions regarding any former Soviet countries.”

I know I’m reassured.

Another day in China:

ChinaAid has learned that Zhang Jian, the elder son of Pastor “Bike” Zhang Mingxuan, was severely beaten by Public Security Bureau (PSB) officials while at home with his mother, Xie Fenglan, in Beijing on October 16. Xie Fenglan testified that at about noon Beijing time, 15 Beijing PSB officers entered their residence and secured the exits before severely beating Zhang Jian with iron bars for 25 minutes. As Zhang Jian lay bleeding profusely, his mother called an ambulance, but the receptionist told her that a higher government authority gave a directive not to dispatch any ambulance to rescue her son because he is related to Pastor Bike Zhang. . .

Pastor Bike Zhang, who was traveling in Yunnan province at the time, is currently unable to be contacted. It is assumed that he has been detained by authorities.

Pastor Bike Zhang’s wife, Xie Fenglan, was kicked out of her legally rented apartment, located at Room 206-102 at the Beijing Olympic Garden apartments, after her elder son Zhang Jian was sent to the hospital. The family’s furniture was thrown into the street. Government authorities ordered all hotels in Beijing not host her so she is now residing at Dr. Fan Yafeng’s home.

(Via the Corner.)

Forbes writes on the plight of refugees trying to escape North Korea:

Without life preservers, and within range of the armed guards, hundreds of thousands of North Koreans over the last decade have braved this crossing [into China]. Some have died trying.

Others have made it into China only to fall foul of a state policy that refuses to recognize any of them as refugees. They are all deemed illegal immigrants, to be captured and sent back. On the far side of Tumen, surrounded by a high wall, stands a big white building with a faded red roof and round guard tower. Local residents say that this is the detention center where North Koreans, when they are caught in this area, are held before being sent back to North Korea. There, they can face retaliation as extreme as imprisonment in slave labor camps or, in some cases, public execution.

In many parts of the world, it would be normal near such a border to have a United Nations refugee camp ready to receive such escapees and at least provide haven until they could gain entry to a third country. In China, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, or UNHCR, has a spacious office in Beijing. But in deference to the Chinese government’s wishes, the UNHCR does not operate near the border and provides no systematic help for North Koreans trying to flee via China.

One can’t be too surprised by anything that China does, but the UN at least pretends to be a humanitarian organization, so one might hope that the UN High Commission on Refugees would actually do something for refugees. But, given the UN’s record, I guess we can’t be too surprised there either.

(Via Instapundit.)

Fox News reports:

Religious groups and free-speech advocates are banding together to fight a United Nations resolution they say is being used to spread Sharia law to the Western world and to intimidate anyone who criticizes Islam.

The non-binding resolution on “Combating the Defamation of Religion” is intended to curtail speech that offends religion — particularly Islam.

Pakistan and the Organization of the Islamic Conference introduced the measure to the U.N. Human Rights Council in 1999. It was amended to include religions other than Islam, and it has passed every year since.

A Saudi cleric says women aren’t oppressed quite enough:

A Muslim cleric in Saudi Arabia has called on women to wear a full veil, or niqab, that reveals only one eye.

Sheikh Muhammad al-Habadan said showing both eyes encouraged women to use eye make-up to look seductive.

Fifteen more Chinese dairies have been tainting their milk with melamine. (Via Instapundit.)

(Previous post.)

A few weeks ago, Russian state television broadcast a “documentary” arguing that 9/11 was an inside job, and no plane ever even hit the Pentagon.

(Via Volokh.)

Fox News reports that tainted Chinese milk, which has killed four babies and sickened tens of thousands in China, has found its way into some Cadbury chocolate.

The Washington Post reports. We’ll have to see how this works out, but I’m skeptical that Mugabe will cede Tsvangirai any real power.

The Washington Post reports:

The United States on Friday accused three top aides to Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez of helping Colombian guerrillas traffic in cocaine and battle the Colombian government, the first time the Bush administration has publicly outlined tight links between what it calls a terrorist group and the highest echelon of Venezuela’s government.

Former interior minister Ramón Rodríguez Chacín and two leading intelligence officials helped the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia procure weapons in the group’s effort to overthrow Colombian President Álvaro Uribe’s U.S.-backed government, the U.S. Treasury Department said in a document placing sanctions on the three. The United States and Europe have blacklisted the FARC, as the rebel group is known, as a terrorist organization. The group is widely reviled in Colombia for carrying out kidnappings and assassinations. . .

American officials said that in addition to the three Chávez aides who were named Friday, they know of other figures close to the Venezuelan leader who have helped the FARC. Colombian authorities have identified two of them as Gen. Cliver Alcalá and Amilcar Figueroa, who has had a role in organizing Venezuelan civilian militias.

Words fail me.

USA Today reports:

Iraq is poised to receive a flood of foreign investment, thanks to improved security. More than $74 billion in projects have been submitted for government approval in just the past five months, according to Iraq’s state investment regulator.

The investors include companies from the U.S., Europe, and Gulf Arab states. Their proposals all involve sectors other than oil, including a $13 billion new port for the southern city of Basra, several hotels and thousands of housing units nationwide, says Ahmed Ridha, the chairman of Iraq’s National Investment Commission.

But there’s this dismaying item:

Only one of the projects has broken ground, while most others are still awaiting government approval, which has been difficult to obtain.

Maybe Iraq is modeling itself after the West too much.

The Economist reports:

IT WAS a humiliating week for Robert Mugabe. As the new parliament elected in March was convened for the first time, the chairman of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), Lovemore Moyo, won the vote to become speaker, beating Mr Mugabe’s candidate. Then the veteran leader was booed and heckled during his speech, for the first time in his 28 years in power. Negotiations between the ruling ZANU-PF and the MDC are still suspended, after the two sides failed to agree on who should hold executive power. Mr Mugabe, not one to take humiliation well, looks set to harden his stance: prospects for an early deal look slim. But it was a rare and telling victory for the opposition.

The Zimbabwean leader had violated ground rules, agreed on before the negotiations began, stipulating that the new parliament should not be convened, nor a new cabinet appointed, while negotiations were under way. Several MDC MPs have already been arrested, some as they were entering Parliament to be sworn in. Ahead of a regional meeting earlier this month, Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC leader, and his party’s secretary-general and chief negotiator were both detained at the airport and their passports confiscated en route to the meeting; they were allowed to continue on their way after South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki, mandated by the region’s leaders to mediate in the talks, apparently intervened.

Reuters reports:

Investors are also unnerved by the aftermath of the five-day war in early August. Russian shares have lost about a third of their value since hitting record highs in May. Russian and Western bank analysts polled by Reuters have cut forecasts for Russia’s gold and foreign exchange reserves.

As much as $25 billion in foreign capital may have left Russia since the Georgia conflict started, they said: while their growth forecasts were little changed at 7.5 percent, the crisis sharply cut the liquidity of the banking system. . .

The stock exchange’s benchmark RTS index, over half of it populated by oil and gas stocks which could have offered strong ‘buy’ opportunities for those keen to ride high energy prices, suffered its biggest decline since the financial crisis in 1998.

(Via Matthew Yglesias, via Marginal Revolution, via Instapundit.)

This comment at Marginal Revolution seems relevant though:

This is missing some other factors. In particular, the Russian government targeted and destroyed Mechtel (NYSE: MTL) by alleging that the company had engaged in price fixing. I think some of this sell-off can also be attributed to investors — many of whom are foreign — realizing that the Russian government can selectively liquidate equities by accusing them of corruption.

CNN reports:

A leading critic of Kremlin-backed leaders in the Russian republic of Ingushetia was fatally shot Sunday while being taken to a police precinct by officers, Reporters without Borders said.

The authorities in the volatile province in southern Russia said Magomed Yevloyev was shot in the head accidentally while resisting arrest, the Paris-based non-governmental organization reported. . .

Yevloyev was the owner of Ingushetiya.ru, a Web site that frequently took to task local leaders in Ingushetia, a small Russian republic bordering Chechnya in the North Caucasus, just north of Georgia.

According to The Associated Press, the site’s deputy editor Ruslan Khautiyev said that Yevloyev arrived in Ingushetia from Moscow on Sunday on the same plane as regional President Murat Zyazikov. He said the police blocked the jet on the runway after it landed in Ingushetia’s provincial capital, Magas, boarded the plane and took Yevloyev off.

Yevloyev was then whisked away in a car and later dumped at the side of a road with a gunshot wound to the head, he said.

I’m pretty sure you lose any benefit of the doubt when you dump the body at the side of the road.

(Via Hot Air.)

A credulous Reuters reports that Vladimir Putin has saved a TV crew from a Siberian tiger. I am not making this up:

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was feted by Russian media on Sunday for saving a television crew from an attack by a Siberian tiger in the wilds of the Far East.

Putin, taking a break from lambasting the West over Georgia, apparently saved the crew while on a trip to a national park to see how researchers monitor the tigers in the wild.

Just as Putin was arriving with a group of wildlife specialists to see a trapped Amur tiger, it escaped and ran towards a nearby camera crew, the country’s main television station said. Putin quickly shot the beast and sedated it with a tranquilizer gun.

“Vladimir Putin not only managed to see the giant predator up close but also saved our television crew too,” a presenter on Rossiya television said at the start of the main evening news.

(Via Hot Air.)

I’m going to have to see video before I believe this one. But, judging by the footage running on Russian television, they don’t have any.

UPDATE: Fox News has the right idea. They run this AP story, but give it the headline “Russian Strongman Putin Reportedly Saves TV Crew From Tiger Attack.”

Human Rights in China has a post-mortem on the Beijing olympics. Here’s their conclusion:

The total costs of staging a show of national glorification will be borne by the ordinary people in China, a fact perhaps not immediately apparent to the foreign visitors who marveled at the splendid new architecture on the temporarily cleaned-up streets of Beijing. The Chinese government spent close to $43 billion to host the Beijing Olympics, the most expensive Games ever in Olympic history. That is almost one-third of the projected $146 billion needed to rebuild the areas devastated by the earthquake in Sichuan.

The serious air pollution and water shortage crisis in China was both temporarily addressed and worsened by hosting the Games. Although Chinese authorities and the IOC insisted that the air quality posed no problems for the athletes, it is Chinese citizens who will bear the health costs for the ongoing impact of environmental pollution, especially after temporary Olympics air pollution measures are lifted. The Beijing Olympics also consumed an estimated 200 million cubic meters of water—the equivalent of the annual water supply for one million people—all diverted from Hebei, a nearby province facing a severe drought over the past several years.

As the post-Beijing Olympics assessments begin, Human Rights in China looks forward to a time when the Chinese government truly puts the people first, and celebrates those working to build a true harmonious society in China.

(Via the Corner.)

This is over a week old, but I’ve only now noticed it. The Telegraph reports:

Another section of the Beijing Olympics opening ceremony has been exposed as faked – the children supposedly representing the country’s 56 ethnic groups were in fact all from the same one, the majority Han Chinese race.

The children carried the national flag into the Bird’s Nest National Stadium, before handing it over to soldiers to raise at the most solemn moment of the ceremony.

They were dressed in costumes associated with the country’s ethnic minorities, including those from troubled areas such as Tibet and the muslim province of Xinjiang. Such displays of “national unity” are a compulsory part of any major state occasion.

But the children were all from the Han Chinese majority, which makes up more than 90 per cent of the population and is culturally and politically dominant, according to an official with the cultural troupe from which they were selected. . .

The official guide to the opening ceremony said that the children did not just represent but came from China’s ethnic groups.

When I first learned about Islam, I was taught that “jihad” was the Islamic doctrine of holy war. Certainly this is Hamas’s view:

The Slogan of the Islamic Resistance Movement:

Allah is its target, the Prophet is its model, the Koran its constitution: Jihad is its path and death for the sake of Allah is the loftiest of its wishes.

Since 9/11, however, we’ve been told that jihad refers not to violence, but to a personal struggle for self-betterment. It’s even suggested that the violent interpretation of jihad is Western (!) in origin. So who’s right?

A Muslim group at USC has compiled a searchable database of the Koran and ahadith. (It’s a very impressive and professional effort, I must say.) So I searched it for “jihad”, and found some informative passages. Here are just a few:

Sahih Bukhari, book 52, number 42:

Allah’s Apostle said, “There is no Hijra (i.e. migration) (from Mecca to Medina) after the Conquest (of Mecca), but Jihad and good intention remain; and if you are called (by the Muslim ruler) for fighting, go forth immediately.

Sahih Bukhari, book 52, number 44:

A man came to Allah’s Apostle and said, “Instruct me as to such a deed as equals Jihad (in reward).” He replied, “I do not find such a deed.” Then he added, “Can you, while the Muslim fighter is in the battle-field, enter your mosque to perform prayers without cease and fast and never break your fast?” The man said, “But who can do that?” Abu- Huraira added, “The Mujahid (i.e. Muslim fighter) is rewarded even for the footsteps of his horse while it wanders bout (for grazing) tied in a long rope.”

Sahih Bukhari, book 24, number 547:

Allah’s Apostle (p.b.u.h) ordered (a person) to collect Zakat, and that person returned and told him that Ibn Jamil, Khalid bin Al-Walid, and Abbas bin ‘Abdul Muttalib had refused to give Zakat.” The Prophet said, “What made Ibn Jamll refuse to give Zakat though he was a poor man, and was made wealthy by Allah and His Apostle ? But you are unfair in asking Zakat from Khalid as he is keeping his armor for Allah’s Cause (for Jihad). As for Abbas bin ‘Abdul Muttalib, he is the uncle of Allah’s Apostle (p.b.u.h) and Zakat is compulsory on him and he should pay it double.”

Mohammed certainly seemed to see jihad as a military struggle, at least in many cases.

UPDATE (12/30): Updated link to the Hamas “covenant”.

An interesting essay by Michael Rubin.  (Via the Corner.)

For the record: I still don’t really care whether China cheated in the “women’s” gymnastic events by falsifying their ages. But I do find it fascinating that the Chinese (and the IOC) see the Chinese government’s say-so as conclusive.

There seems to be a basic disconnect here between the Chinese authoritarian mentality and ours. We don’t trust our own government, much less the government of China. The disconnect seems to leave them unable to form actual arguments, leaving them to fall back to statements like:

“Surely it’s not possible that these documents are still not sufficient proof of her birthdate?” [Chinese coach Lu Shanzan] asked. “The passports were issued by the Chinese Foreign Ministry. The identity card was issued by China’s Ministry of Public Security. . .”

“The Chinese government and the Chinese athletes must be respected,” he added.

The Chinese government would have us believe that obedience to authority is a fundamental aspect of Chinese culture, and not just the training of its totalitarian regime.  Is it true?  I don’t think so; just look at Taiwan, and at Chinese expatriates throughout the world.  But I suppose China would argue that those others have abandoned Chinese culture.

Don’t read this AP story if you have a weak stomach:

It hurts too much to lie on his back, so the 7-year-old has spent the past month stretched out on his stomach. His two grandmothers sit on the hospital bed beside him, fanning the pink flesh left exposed by his teacher’s whip.

It’s progress that Momodou Biteye is in the hospital at all. It’s also encouraging that the Quranic teacher who did this to him is behind bars.

But what is most significant is that the boy’s father – a poor farmer who sold part of his harvest to pay for the bus fare to the hospital – filed the charges against the teacher himself. In doing so, this man with cracked lips and bloodshot eyes braved the wrath of his entire village, including his own father, who considers all teachers in Senegal’s Islamic schools to be holy.

It gets worse.

(Via the Corner.)