Remember when President Obama promised that if you like your health insurance, you would get to keep it? That was a lie.
According to the Congressional Budget Office’s latest estimate (report here, p. 4), 11 million people will lose their health insurance under Obamacare. That’s 7% of all the people who receive their health insurance from their employer.
This is the CBO’s baseline estimate, meaning that the actual number could be much, much worse. The report doesn’t actually seem to give the worst-case number, but it would be over 20 million. Moreover, the worse end is more likely, since the CBO’s numbers are much rosier than the results of business surveys.
POSTSCRIPT: If you’re wondering how to reconcile these numbers with the bottom-line numbers released by the CBO, here’s the deal. The CBO says that, in their baseline, 3 to 5 million fewer people will have employment-based health care. That’s a net figure: 11 million lose it, but others would gain it, leaving 3 to 5 million fewer on net. That sort of calculation makes sense for the CBO, which is tasked with calculating the cost to the government of this monstrosity. But the net figure isn’t right for evaluating how badly Obama has broken his promise that no one who likes his or her health care will lose it.