Medicare Actuary pans Obamacare, part 2

Last week I noted the report from the Medicare Actuary, which said that Obamacare will cost much more than predicted. Here’s some more of the report’s interesting conclusions:

  • 14 million people will lose or drop their employer-sponsored health care. This is greater than the number who will gain it. (Page 7.)
  • Of the 34 million people who will become insured for the first time, more than half will obtain that coverage through Medicaid. (Medicaid reimbursements are so low that many doctors don’t take it.) (Page 6.)
  • 12% of insured workers will be in “high-cost” plans and subject to the excise tax in 2019, and the percentage will increase “rapidly” after that. Consequently, the excise tax provision is likely to be modified. (Pages 12-13.)
  • The excise tax on “high-cost” plans is the main provision that will tend to reduce costs. (If it actually happens.) The effect of most of the provisions to control health care costs will be “small” or “negligible”, or cannot be estimated. (Pages 12-13.)
  • The funding for high-risk pools will be exhausted within 1 to 3 years. Consequently, unless additional funding is provided, that program will probably end before other coverage kicks in. (Page 15.)

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