The Democratic leadership has finally released their bill, with its preliminary CBO score. The final CBO score won’t come out for a few days, possibly after the vote takes place. There’s a very good chance that the House will be voting on the bill without knowing its exact cost.
The exact cost matters, as it turns out. The reconciliation instructions require that the reconciliation bill cut the deficit by at least $1 billion; otherwise it can’t be considered. Now, $1 billion isn’t much, but with the reconciliation bill adding $170 billion to the cost, the Democratic leadership had to find at least $171 in tax hikes or savings to hit the mark.
It took them a few iterations to do so (that’s why the bill was delayed), but they eventually got to exactly $171 billion. That’s good enough for the Democrats, if that score holds up. But if the final score worsens by even $1 billion, the reconciliation bill will be dead.
Once again, the House Democrats are fools if they go for this. They are being asked to trust not only that Senate Democrats will act on the reconciliation bill unamended and Senate Republicans will fail to block it, but also that the CBO score won’t change one iota.
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