Internet Scofflaw

Here’s the best available indication of what the press thinks will happen at the polls today:

For Republicans, an election win of any size Tuesday would be a blessing. But victories in Virginia, New Jersey or elsewhere won’t erase enormous obstacles the party faces heading into a 2010 midterm election year when control of Congress and statehouses from coast to coast will be up for grabs.

If the AP were calling this a referendum on President Obama, you could be pretty sure they expected a good night for Democrats.

(Via Hot Air.)

UPDATE: A pretty good night nationally, with big wins in Virginia and New Jersey and a near sweep in Pennsylvania judicial races. Still, the loss in NY-23 is sad, if meaningless in practical terms.

Shenanigans in New Jersey.

(Via Instapundit.) (Previous post.)

Nancy Pelosi’s release of the House Democrats health care reform bill has had a distinct impact on the debate. Last week, sentiment on the Democratic plan had closed to only a six-point gap (51% opposed, 45% in favor). Now, with the publication of the Pelosi plan, the gap is back to double-digits, 54-42. The twelve-point gap is close to the all-time low (15 points) at the end of September.

(Via Hot Air.)

PPP’s polling on the closely watched races tomorrow is very promising for Republicans (McDonnell by 14, Christie by 6, Hoffman by 14), but some have questioned how reliable PPP is. So, for another estimate, here’s Intrade’s latest prices:

• Virginia: McDonnell 98.5, Deeds 1.5
• New Jersey: Christie 55, Corzine 45, Daggett 1.1
• NY-23: Hoffman 70, Owens 33, Scozzafava 4.4

If the traders are right, and they almost always are, the only election in doubt is New Jersey, and Christie has the edge there.

I don’t know what impact this will have on the NY-23 race, but it does prove that we were right to oppose Scozzafava.

UPDATE: According to the PPP poll, the endorsement boosted Owens, but not nearly enough. It was 54-31 immediately before, and 52-38 after. A nine-point shift is nothing to sneeze at, but Hoffman is still left with a double-digit lead. (Via the Corner.)

ABC News reports:

Posting its results late this afternoon at Recovery.gov, the White House claimed 640,329 jobs have been created or saved because of the $159 billion in stimulus funds allocated as of Sept. 30.

Officials acknowledged the numbers were not exact, saying that states and localities that reported the numbers have made mistakes. . .

The White House argues that the actual job number is actually larger than 640,000 — closer to 1 million jobs when one factors in stimulus jobs added in October and, more importantly, jobs created indirectly, such as “the waitress who’s still on the job,” Vice President Biden said today.

So let’s see. Assuming their number is right — 160 billion divided by 1 million. Does that mean the stimulus costs taxpayers $160,000 per job?

Jared Bernstein, chief economist and senior economic advisor to the vice president, called that “calculator abuse.”

“Calculator abuse”? That’s all they’ve got?

POSTSCRIPT: By the way, I’m reminded of an incident from 2003 in which Paul Krugman tried to do a similar calculation for President Bush’s tax cuts. But unlike ABC, Krugman didn’t do the calculation honestly. Krugman took a ten-year cost figure, divided it by the number of jobs that were projected to be created (none of this “jobs saved” nonsense) within the first year, and presented that meaningless quotient as if it were the annual cost per job.