Georgia voters today will (presumably) settle one of the two remaining Senate races. Chambliss appears likely to win the re-election he missed by a hair’s breadth on election night. The RCP poll average gives him a small but consistent 5 point lead and his contract is selling at 97 on Intrade.
The Minnesota recount has things headed in Coleman’s direction. Franken’s effort to get his counties to report first, in order to put him in the lead, came up short with Coleman’s lead bottoming out in the middle one hundreds. With 91% now recounted, Coleman’s lead is now about 340, up from his pre-recount margin of 215. The Coleman contract is selling at 80.9 on Intrade.
Franken is pinning his hopes on the US Senate to reverse the outcome of the election. The closest precedent to such an action would be Louis Wyman in New Hampshire 1974. In that election, Wyman (a Republican) won the election by 2 votes after two recounts but the Senate deadlocked on whether to seat him. In the end, it was decided to hold a do-over, which his opponent won. Coleman will likely win by hundreds of votes, not two, making 1974 a dubious precedent, but they have the power to do it, so we can’t rule anything out.
UPDATE : The good news is that Chambliss did indeed win, and pretty handily (at this hour). On the other hand, Coleman has dropped to 60 on Intrade, so he’s still seen as the favorite, but not the almost prohibitive favorite he appeared earlier today. Today’s briefing from the Franken campaign is probably the reason.
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