I’ve been following the outstanding Senate races on the Intrade markets. Saxby Chambliss (who has a small lead in the polls) has had a solid advantage on Intrade since Election Day, but his price has jumped to 93.5, indicating a virtual certainty in the mind of the bettors.
It’s hard to know the true state of affairs In the Minnesota recount (I’ve been following the updates on Power Line), but it appears that Coleman has widened his lead a bit from a bottom in the middle one hundreds. The bettors, in any case, are now clearly favoring Coleman. The Coleman price has hovered a little over parity since the election, but it’s now jumped to 68.9.
One caution is that the rules of the Intrade contract seem to base the outcome on who wins the seat, not who ends up being seated, so the possibility that the Democratic Senate might set aside the Minnesota election result and seat Franken is not a factor as I read it. Would the Democrats go so far? Franken is angling for it, but I doubt it. I don’t think the Democrats would want to tarnish their victory and Obama’s by stealing an extra seat that wouldn’t get them to 60 anyway. But that might change if Franken succeeds in putting enough stink on the results to mute the outrage of a Senate reversal.
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