Michael Rubin writes that efforts to bring Damascus into America’s orbit are doomed to fail, and will probably hurt American interests in the process.
Why does Assad flirt with the West? He derives his power from rejection of the West and Israel, but he knows history. He understands that he can both embrace process and ignore peace. So long as the West conflates diplomacy and inducement, Assad can pocket irreversible incentives: A reprieve from the Rafik Hariri murder investigation, concessions on territorial disputes, an end to sanctions and heightened trade.
When the time comes to reciprocate, Assad can walk away, as his father so often did, leaving Washington with far less leverage than before.
I hope he’s wrong, but I doubt it.
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