Chambliss (R-Georgia) appears to have microscopically missed achieving a majority, so it appears that race is headed to a runoff. Coleman (R-Minnesota) is leading Franken by about 1000 votes with 9 precincts left to report; it is surely headed to a recount. Stevens (R-Alaska) appears to have survived, despite being the Republican least deserving of a win yesterday. He leads by over 3000 in a small state, but we’ll probably see a recount there as well. All three are strong favorites on Intrade at this point.
Oregon, for some reason, is unable to count vote in a timely fashion. Despite having the entire night to work, only 75% percent of precincts are reporting. Smith (R) is leading by 2 points, but that doesn’t mean much. Intrade has nary a hint either.
If we assume Republicans hold Georgia, Minnesota, and Alaska, but lose Oregon, that leaves a 57-43 balance in the Senate.
UPDATE: With all precincts now reporting in Minnesota, Coleman has won by 726 votes, until the recount. (And late-arriving absentees?) Also, Georgia still has 4% of precincts to report so we don’t have a runoff just yet.
UPDATE: Kathryn Jean Lopez says Alaska has 40,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted. Oy. She also says that Chambliss is back over 50% with 99% of precincts reporting. (I can’t confirm this on Georgia’s web site.)
UPDATE: Intrade is calling Oregon virtual certainty for Merkley (D). However, it’s also strongly favoring an outcome of 51-55 Democratic Senate seats, which doesn’t make any sense, since the Democrats have already locked up 56 and Oregon would make 57. What’s going on?
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