The USA Today/Gallup poll I blogged two days ago has finally been published. (Internet Scofflaw: tomorrow’s news today!) The 50-45 advantage for Republicans I reported is among likely voters. Among registered voters, the Democrats have a narrow 48-45 lead, but that’s still much closer than the double-digit lead they’ve enjoyed all year. Bottom line:
The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup’s “likely voter” model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.
If these numbers are sustained through Election Day — a big if — Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Internet Scofflaw 