Iranian forces are not only present in Iraq, but actively participated in the recent battle for Basra, the London Times is reporting. (Via Instapundit.)
The war in Iraq seems to have entered a fourth phase. First there was the brief war against Saddam. Second there was domestic insurgency, largely by Baathist dead-enders, which was longer than the invasion but shorter than the conflict that has followed. Third was the al Qaeda insurgency, which succeeded for a while but has been largely defeated by the surge. Significantly, both the second and third phases were against non-state actors.
Now the war seems to be changing its character again, to a direct conflict between Iran and its Iraqi surrogates on one side, and Iraq and the Coalition on the other side. In retrospect we were too slow to adjust to each of the previous shifts, and I fear we will be too slow in this case as well.
In a sense, the new problem is easier. Iran poses a conventional threat that we can address. Deterrence is now a plausible strategy, which it never was against al Qaeda or the Baathist dead-enders. But we need a credible threat of escalation, and plan for action if that fails. It doesn’t appear that we have either, and if we did, it doesn’t seem as though the Democrats (who have no desire any more to win) would permit us to carry one out.
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