Internet Scofflaw

Michael Ledeen says so:

For some time now, the regime in Tehran has shown signs of urgency, sometimes verging on panic. Of late, the mullahs have organized raucus demonstrations in front of numerous embassies, including those of Egypt (with chants of “Death to Mubarak”), Jordan, Turkey, Great Britain, Germany and today (imagine!) France. These demonstrations were not mere gestures; the regime’s seriousness was underlined on Sunday, the 4th, when it offered a million-dollar reward to anyone who killed Mubarak (the Iranians called it a “revolutionary execution”). Significantly, the announcement came at a rally of the Basij, the most radical security force in the country, at which the Revolutionary Guards official Forooz Rejaii spoke. The Egyptians take it seriously; they have been on alert of late, looking for the possibility of a Mumbai-type operation in Cairo or elsewhere.

At the same time, the regime intensified its murderous assault against its own people, most notably hanging nine people on Christmas Eve, and assaulting the headquarters of Nobel Prize Winner Shirin Ebadi.

This intense tempo of activity bespeaks alarm in Tehran, which is fully justified by a number of setbacks. First of all, the dramatic drop in oil prices is devastating to the mullahs, who had planned to be able to fund terrorist proxies throughout the Middle East, Europe and the Americas. Suddenly their bottom line is tinged with red, and this carries over onto their domestic balance sheets, which were already demonstrably shaky (they were forced to cancel proposed new taxes when the merchant class staged nation-wide protests). No wonder they seize on any international event to call for petroleum export reductions. Just today they called for a drastic reduction of oil shipments to all countries that supported the Israeli military incursion into Gaza.

Second, their terror strategy has not been working as well as they wished and expected. Most American and European analysts have not appreciated the effect of the defeat of al Qaeda, Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guards in Iraq, but you can be sure that the high and mighty in Arab capitals have taken full notice. . .

Third, despite all their efforts to crush any sign of internal rebellion, many Iranians continue to publicly oppose the mullahs. A few weeks ago, students at universities all over the country demonstrated in significant numbers, and as one Iranian now living in Europe put it to me, “they were surprised that the regime was unable to stop the protests, even though everyone knew they were planned.” This is the background for the new wave of repression, accompanied by an intensification of jamming on the Internet, and an ongoing reshuffle of the instruments of repression; Khamanei and Ahmadinejad have no confidence in the efficacy or blind loyalty of the army or of large segments of the Revolutionary Guards. Most public actions are carried out by the Basij, who are judged more reliable, and repression is less in the hands of the traditional ministries than in new groups freshly minted in the Supreme Leader’s office. . .

I have long argued that the Iranian regime is fundamentally hollow, that much of its apparent strength is bluster and deception rather than real power and resolve.  At a minimum, it is a regime that must constantly fear for its own survival, not because of any willful resolve from its external enemies but because of the simmering hatred from its own people.  This is a moment when those people are, as so often in the recent past, looking for at least a few supportive actions.  If the West is now convinced that Iran is the proximate cause and chief sponsor of Hamas’ assault against Israel, it should demonstrate once and for all that we are prepared to fight back.

(Via Instapundit.)

Ledeen has been arguing for those supportive actions for a long time.  In his 2002 book, he argued that the Iranian regime c0uld be overthrown without military action, principally by diplomatic efforts to strengthen its internal enemies.  Unfortunately, President Bush failed to do anything about Iran, leaving the problem to President Obama.

Is there any reason to believe that Obama is up to the task?  His promise to meet unconditionally with Ahmedinejad is cause for pessimism, but it’s clear Obama knows that pledge was a mistake.  Typically, he was unable to admit his mistake, but he did backpedal in every possible way, so we can view the pledge as withdrawn.

Moreover, the idea of overthrowing Iran without military action would have to be attractive to Obama, who needs to show that he is serious about national security but nothing at all like President Bush.  His National Security Advisor, Jim Jones, is well-regarded in the right circles and should give him good advice.

At least, that’s what I’m telling myself.

Blowing their wad on a war of aggression looks like a blunder now:

There are many oft-quoted indicators of Russia’s suffering economy — the nation’s international reserves have fallen by more than 25 percent since August; the major stock indices recently plummeted by 70 percent; and the ruble has been sliding — it’s now selling at exchange houses for about 30 to the dollar, compared with 23.5 five months ago.

Beyond those figures and the analysis of financial experts, however, on the streets of Moscow — a city that has known much tumult during the past century — there is for many Russians a deep sense of fear, a feeling of being underneath a gathering, dark wave of hard economic times.

Only last spring, downtown Moscow was a place where Russia’s nouveau riche walked out the door of boutiques with fists full of bags from Hermes, Cartier and Gucci. . .

That was before the war with Georgia in August, which kicked off an exodus of foreign capital; the global financial crunch, which dried up lines of credit used by heavily leveraged Russian businessmen; and, finally, the crash of oil prices that had underwritten much of the boom.

(Via Instapundit.)

The Economist reports that coups and attempted coups are becoming much less common.  I wonder why.

Zimbabwe asks Bush to leave office quietly.  (Via the Corner.)

I think that Mugabe complaining of election irregularities was better, but this is pretty good.

China blocks the New York Times and other web sites, reversing the liberalization of speech it permitted as the Olympics approached.

Hosting the Olympics didn’t lead to lasting change in Chinese human rights?  I’m shocked!

The Economist reports:

SEVEN months short of a presidential election, an immaculately robed Shia cleric living in comfortable semi-retirement is making Iranians hold their political breath. When Muhammad Khatami stepped down as Iran’s president three years ago, his plans to reform Iran in tatters, he gave every impression that he had left politics for good. Now, his friends attest, he is pondering a comeback. . .

Mr Khatami’s change of heart stems from his anger at what followed [his departure]. Elected on a platform of social justice, Mr Ahmadinejad has squandered Iran’s huge oil revenues on inflationary handouts, cares little for human rights and embarrassed many of his compatriots with his undiplomatic pronouncements, among them his suggestion that Israel should not exist. Many Iranians now remember Mr Khatami’s tenure, when the authorities relaxed their grip, just a little, on the ordinary Iranian and the president won plaudits for his charm and moderation, as a golden age.

Last June Ireland rejected European transnationalism, as Europeans do whenever they’re offered the chance. The EU almost managed to avoid any public vote on the Lisbon treaty, but that pesky Irish constitution stood in the way.  Now, the Eurocrats are doing whenever the voters reject their plans — trying again.

In July, Irish public sentiment was overwhelmingly against a re-do but I guess things must have softened.  Remember, the only thing that’s fine is a yes vote.  Everything you need to know about the Lisbon treaty is summarized here.

(Via the Corner.)

They refuse to meet with Jimmy Carter.  (Via the Corner.)

Good for them:

Election officials began counting ballots late Sunday in one of Africa’s rare democracies, where voters are painfully aware of the example they are setting on a continent better known for coups, rigged elections and one-man rule. . .

A lot is riding on Ghana’s election, not just for the nation of 23 million but also for Africa as a whole. Like its neighbors, Ghana has a history of coups and one-party rule, but since the 1990s when coup leader Jerry Rawlings agreed to hold elections, it has been on a fast track to democracy. It has held four elections since 1992, first bringing Rawlings to power, then current President John Kufuor, who is stepping down after two terms in office.

When he does, it will mark the country’s second successive transfer of power from one democratically elected leader to another, a litmus test of a mature democracy that only a handful of African nations have passed.

They could have left out the “African” qualifier.

AP: Think tanks say Obama should shift focus from Iraq to Iran.

Zimbabwe’s army is getting restless, as it is no longer getting paid any more than the general public.

The least surprising story of the day:

President Hugo Chavez asked supporters to propose a constitutional reform that would allow him to seek indefinite re-election and govern through 2019, giving him more time to build a socialist economy in Venezuela.

On the other hand, this is a little interesting:

Chavez also threatened Sunday to expel Colombia’s top diplomat in Maracaibo, Venezuela’s second largest city, after he privately welcomed opposition victories in five key races during last week’s gubernatorial and municipal elections.

In a private telephone conversation apparently recorded by Venezuelan intelligence agents, Carlos Galvis called the opposition’s gains “very good news.” The recording was then broadcast on state television by talk show host Alberto Noria.

It’s not surprising that Venezuela is spying on Colombian diplomats, but it is a little surprising that they would broadcast the proceeds on television.  It’s surprising, not because it causes an international incident (Chavez seems to love those), but because it probably compromised a Venezuelan intelligence capability.  Why would he do that?  It sounds a little like desperation, but I wouldn’t have thought that Chavez was there yet.

Fox News reports:

The attackers specifically targeted Britons, Americans and Israelis at the hotels and restaurant, witnesses said.

Alex Chamberlain, a British citizen who was dining at the Oberoi, told Sky News television that a gunman ushered 30 to 40 people from the restaurant into a stairway and, speaking in Hindi or Urdu, ordered everyone to put up their hands.

“They were talking about British and Americans specifically. There was an Italian guy, who, you know, they said: ‘Where are you from?” and he said he’s from Italy and they said ‘fine’ and they left him alone. And I thought: ‘Fine, they’re going to shoot me if they ask me anything — and thank God they didn’t,” he said.

On the other hand, Russians were released:

Terrorists holed up inside Mumbai’s Taj and Trident-Oberoi hotels allowed 17 Russian hostages, including nine defence contractors, to leave after checking their passports, following which they were safely evacuated.

Earlier on Thursday, spokesman of Russian arms exporting company ‘Rosoboron export’ had confirmed that nine of its specialists working on various defence projects in India were safely evacuated from the Taj hotel.

(Via Classical Values and Barcepundit, via Instapundit.)

Plus a terror threat against New York’s mass transit.  Sounds like terrorism isn’t dead after all.

Reuters reports.  Talk that the pact was in trouble came to nothing, as it passed 149-49.

The NYT reports:

President Hugo Chávez’s supporters suffered defeat in several state and municipal races on Sunday, with the opposition retaining power in Zulia, the country’s most populous state, and winning crucial races here in the capital, the National Electoral Council said.

But:

The results will be a test for Venezuela’s beleaguered political institutions, depending on how the president reacts.

Despite the inroads made by the opposition, followers of Mr. Chávez still control the Supreme Court, the National Assembly, the federal bureaucracy and every state company.

Mr. Chávez recently signaled that he might move to pick new regional officials, effectively diminishing the power of opponents elected elsewhere by voters.

(Via the Corner.)

Kissinger’s famous quip seems very apt for this news:

Tension mounted Sunday between pirates holding a Saudi tanker and Islamist fighters threatening to attack them, with a week remaining for the ship’s owners to meet a 25-million-dollar ransom demand.

“If the pirates want peace, they had better release the tanker,” Sheikh Ahmed, a spokesman for the Shebab group in the coastal region of Harardhere, told AFP by phone.

The UN Human Rights Council spent $23 million in foreign aid money on a mural:

The U.N. Human Rights Council, frequently accused of coddling some of the world’s most repressive governments, threw itself a party in Geneva Tuesday that featured the unveiling of a $23 million mural paid for in part with foreign aid funds.

In a ceremony attended by U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, Spanish artist Miquel Barcelo told the press that his 16,000-square-foot ceiling artwork reminded him of “an image of the world dripping toward the sky” — but it reminded critics of money slipping out of relief coffers.

“In Spain there’s a controversy because they took money out of the foreign aid budget — took money from starving children in Africa — and spent it on colorful stalactites,” said Hillel Neuer, executive director of U.N. Watch.

Michael Rubin writes that efforts to bring Damascus into America’s orbit are doomed to fail, and will probably hurt American interests in the process.

Why does Assad flirt with the West? He derives his power from rejection of the West and Israel, but he knows history. He understands that he can both embrace process and ignore peace. So long as the West conflates diplomacy and inducement, Assad can pocket irreversible incentives: A reprieve from the Rafik Hariri murder investigation, concessions on territorial disputes, an end to sanctions and heightened trade.

When the time comes to reciprocate, Assad can walk away, as his father so often did, leaving Washington with far less leverage than before.

I hope he’s wrong, but I doubt it.

Whatever:

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that a bill that would extend the Russian president’s term to six years was not tailored for him and would be a boost for democracy in the country.

The measure could pave the way for a new 12-year presidency for Putin if he decides to seek Russia’s highest office again. Lawmakers are moving to fast-track the constitutional change that President Dmitry Medvedev submitted to parliament Tuesday.

Putin said the change “has no personal dimension” and cast it as aiding democracy — which critics say was rolled back dramatically during his two four-year presidential terms.

Fox News reports:

Barack Obama had been president-elect for all of one day last week when Russian President Dmitry Medvedev called him out, reminding many of vice president-to-be Joe Biden’s warning that America’s enemies would test the new president with an international crisis within six months.

In his first state-of-the-nation address, Medvedev threatened to move short-range missiles to Russia’s borders with NATO countries to counter America’s plan to build a missile defense shield in Poland.

Medvedev didn’t congratulate Obama or mention him by name in his nationally televised 85-minute address, during which he blamed Washington for the war in Georgia and the world financial crisis and suggested it was up to Washington to mend badly damaged ties.

“It was a really unfortunate time to make this type of statement, just when Obama was elected,” said Dimitri K. Simes, president of The Nixon Center and author of “After the Collapse: Russia Seeks Its Place as a Great Power.”

“It was a poor way to communicate the interest Russia has in the new beginning of the United States,” Simes said.

A poor way? To the contrary, I think Medvedev conveyed precisely the interest Russia has in the new American administration. Those who think that Russia (and Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, etc.) are opposed not to America, but merely to President Bush, are going to find themselves greatly disappointed.

Hint: they’re not adding checks and balances.

Sometimes oppression is just weird:

Vietnam is considering banning small-chested drivers from its roads — a proposal that has provoked widespread disbelief in this nation of slight people.

The Ministry of Health recently recommended that people whose chests measure fewer than 28 inches would be prohibited from driving motorbikes — as would those who are too short or too thin.

The proposal is part of an exhaustive list of new criteria the ministry has come up with to ensure that Vietnam’s drivers are in good health. As news of the plan was reported by the media this week, Vietnamese expressed incredulity. . .

It was not clear how the ministry established its size guidelines or why it thinks that small people make bad drivers. An official there declined to comment. . .

Motorbikes account for more than 90 percent of the vehicles on Vietnam’s chaotic roads.

(Via the Corner.)

I trust no one is shocked by this:

Nearly three years after the United Nations launched a highly publicized effort to crack down on fraud and waste, especially in its scandal-torn multi-billion-dollar procurement department, the clean-hands offensive is slowing down. And, its own watchdogs warn, other major areas of the U.N. bureaucracy are suffering from an alarming lack of scrutiny. . .

Those conclusions are contained in a pair of annual reports that have been submitted to the General Assembly by the U.N. watchdogs themselves, known as the Office of Internal Oversight Services (OIOS).

One of the reports covers the operations from July 1, 2007 to July 31, 2008, of the U.N.’s Procurement Task Force (PTF), which was set up in January 2006 to attack procurement corruption. The document also serves as an obituary of sorts for the PTF.

As the report notes, the task force is expected to disappear at the end of this year, strangled by lack of General Assembly funding. The task force will turn over more than 150 unexamined cases, including “several significant” fraud and corruption matters, to regular OIOS investigators, who may or may not be able to handle them.

The more damning document is a report on OIOS activities from June 2007 to June 2008 across the U.N., which is not limited merely to procurement. Its author, OIOS chief Inga-Britt Ahlenius, pointed out a number of U.N. “risk categories” that strongly hint that the scandals of the past could be repeated.

So a Korean newspaper is reporting.

Reuters reports:

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez threatened on Saturday to imprison his main political rival, intensifying a campaign against a man he calls a crime boss just a month before he faces tough regional elections.

Opposition leader Manuel Rosales, who lost to Chavez in the 2006 presidential vote, is governor of the oil producing state of Zulia and is running for mayor of its capital Maracaibo.

“I am determined to put Manuel Rosales behind bars. A swine like that has to be in prison,” Chavez said. . .

Chavez provided no specific evidence for the charges against the main leader of a fragmented opposition who has solid support in the oil-producing west of the OPEC nation. . .

Chavez has been campaigning vigorously for his candidates in gubernatorial and mayoral races in the November 23 election but may lose some key posts as Venezuelans worry about crime, inflation and poor public services, pollsters say.

Chavez often makes dramatic threats in speeches without immediately carrying them out. Still, he does follow through on enough of them over time for his threats to concern the people he targets.

(Via Instapundit.)

The AP reports:

An American university student in Iran to visit family and research women’s rights has been arrested and held in prison for more than a week, rights group Amnesty International said.

Esha Momeni, a student at California State University, Northridge, was driving on a highway in Tehran when she was stopped by authorities who said they were traffic police, the London-based Amnesty said.

Iranian officials said Momeni was arrested Oct. 15 for a traffic offense. But Amnesty said in a statement Tuesday she was taken to her family’s home where her computer and other materials related to her research on the Iranian women’s movement were confiscated.

Momeni, who is a member of the California branch of Change for Equality — an Iranian women’s rights group — was later taken to Evin prison, the Tehran facility notorious for holding political prisoners, Amnesty said.

Inside Higher Ed has more on Momeni, and others.

The Wall Street Journal reports:

Hemmed in by the global financial squeeze and commodities slump, Argentina’s leftist government has seemingly found a novel way to find the money to stay afloat: cracking open the piggybank of the nation’s private pension system.

The government proposed to nationalize the private pensions, which would provide it with much of the cash it needs to meet debt payments and avoid a second default this decade. . . The private system has about $30 billion in assets and generates about $5 billion in new contributions each year.

While no one knows for sure what the government would do with the private system, economists said nationalization would let the government raid new pension contributions to cover short-term debts due in coming years. . .

Argentina is doubly hurt. Having stiffed creditors as recently as 2001, it has few prospects of returning to international lending markets soon. Economists who were critical of the nationalization proposal said it reinforced Argentina’s image as a renegade in financial circles.

The private pension system was created as an alternative to state pension funds in 1994, when conservative President Carlos Saúl Menem ran Argentina and free-market policies were in vogue in Latin America. Countries in the region followed the example of Chile, which had privatized pensions in 1981. In Argentina, workers have the option of paying into individual retirement accounts run by pension funds rather than the government.

Three million Argentines do so. They can track their accounts and have some say over how the pension funds invest the money, making the system somewhat like U.S. 401(k) accounts. After a nationalization, it’s presumed the government-run system would absorb the private funds.

It’s just the latest in the Argentine horror show:

Mrs. Kirchner won’t have trouble making the case for expropriation to Congress, which is controlled by her fellow Peronists. When the Argentine government ran out of money in 2001, it blamed the market and increased its own role in the economy. Since then it has imposed price controls, defaulted on its debt, seized dollar bank accounts, devalued the currency, nationalized businesses and tried to set confiscatory tax rates with the aim of making society more “fair.” Mrs. Kirchner and her predecessor (and husband) Nestór Kirchner have also preserved the Peronist tradition of big spending.

All of this has been deemed acceptable because of the “crisis.”

You spend your entire life saving for retirement, and then the government takes it away. It could never happen here, right? The Democrats might abolish 401(k)s in favor a government-owned plan, but they would never confiscate existing ones, would they?

(Via Power Line.)

The AP reports:

North Korea will make an “important announcement” on Monday amid speculation over the health of its leader Kim Jong Il, a Japanese newspaper reported Sunday. . .  Quoting unidentified sources at Japan’s defense ministry, the Sankei said Tokyo had information that “there will be an important announcement on (Oct.) 20th.”

The Sankei said there was speculation within the Japanese government that the North’s announcement could be about Kim’s death or a government change induced by a coup.

North Korea will also ban foreigners from entering the country starting Monday, it said, without giving further details.

The London Times reports:

Sergei Ivanov, deputy to Vladimir Putin, the prime minister, promised that Russia’s intentions were entirely peaceful despite its invasion of Georgia. Moscow officials insist that its military operations in August were provoked by Georgian aggression.

“We are not aggressive,” Ivanov said in an interview. “We have recognised the territorial integrity of all former Soviet republics. That was in 1991. Russia, of course, has no territorial ambitions regarding any former Soviet countries.”

I know I’m reassured.

Another day in China:

ChinaAid has learned that Zhang Jian, the elder son of Pastor “Bike” Zhang Mingxuan, was severely beaten by Public Security Bureau (PSB) officials while at home with his mother, Xie Fenglan, in Beijing on October 16. Xie Fenglan testified that at about noon Beijing time, 15 Beijing PSB officers entered their residence and secured the exits before severely beating Zhang Jian with iron bars for 25 minutes. As Zhang Jian lay bleeding profusely, his mother called an ambulance, but the receptionist told her that a higher government authority gave a directive not to dispatch any ambulance to rescue her son because he is related to Pastor Bike Zhang. . .

Pastor Bike Zhang, who was traveling in Yunnan province at the time, is currently unable to be contacted. It is assumed that he has been detained by authorities.

Pastor Bike Zhang’s wife, Xie Fenglan, was kicked out of her legally rented apartment, located at Room 206-102 at the Beijing Olympic Garden apartments, after her elder son Zhang Jian was sent to the hospital. The family’s furniture was thrown into the street. Government authorities ordered all hotels in Beijing not host her so she is now residing at Dr. Fan Yafeng’s home.

(Via the Corner.)

Forbes writes on the plight of refugees trying to escape North Korea:

Without life preservers, and within range of the armed guards, hundreds of thousands of North Koreans over the last decade have braved this crossing [into China]. Some have died trying.

Others have made it into China only to fall foul of a state policy that refuses to recognize any of them as refugees. They are all deemed illegal immigrants, to be captured and sent back. On the far side of Tumen, surrounded by a high wall, stands a big white building with a faded red roof and round guard tower. Local residents say that this is the detention center where North Koreans, when they are caught in this area, are held before being sent back to North Korea. There, they can face retaliation as extreme as imprisonment in slave labor camps or, in some cases, public execution.

In many parts of the world, it would be normal near such a border to have a United Nations refugee camp ready to receive such escapees and at least provide haven until they could gain entry to a third country. In China, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, or UNHCR, has a spacious office in Beijing. But in deference to the Chinese government’s wishes, the UNHCR does not operate near the border and provides no systematic help for North Koreans trying to flee via China.

One can’t be too surprised by anything that China does, but the UN at least pretends to be a humanitarian organization, so one might hope that the UN High Commission on Refugees would actually do something for refugees. But, given the UN’s record, I guess we can’t be too surprised there either.

(Via Instapundit.)

Fox News reports:

Religious groups and free-speech advocates are banding together to fight a United Nations resolution they say is being used to spread Sharia law to the Western world and to intimidate anyone who criticizes Islam.

The non-binding resolution on “Combating the Defamation of Religion” is intended to curtail speech that offends religion — particularly Islam.

Pakistan and the Organization of the Islamic Conference introduced the measure to the U.N. Human Rights Council in 1999. It was amended to include religions other than Islam, and it has passed every year since.

A Saudi cleric says women aren’t oppressed quite enough:

A Muslim cleric in Saudi Arabia has called on women to wear a full veil, or niqab, that reveals only one eye.

Sheikh Muhammad al-Habadan said showing both eyes encouraged women to use eye make-up to look seductive.

Fifteen more Chinese dairies have been tainting their milk with melamine. (Via Instapundit.)

(Previous post.)

A few weeks ago, Russian state television broadcast a “documentary” arguing that 9/11 was an inside job, and no plane ever even hit the Pentagon.

(Via Volokh.)

Fox News reports that tainted Chinese milk, which has killed four babies and sickened tens of thousands in China, has found its way into some Cadbury chocolate.

The Washington Post reports. We’ll have to see how this works out, but I’m skeptical that Mugabe will cede Tsvangirai any real power.

The Washington Post reports:

The United States on Friday accused three top aides to Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez of helping Colombian guerrillas traffic in cocaine and battle the Colombian government, the first time the Bush administration has publicly outlined tight links between what it calls a terrorist group and the highest echelon of Venezuela’s government.

Former interior minister Ramón Rodríguez Chacín and two leading intelligence officials helped the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia procure weapons in the group’s effort to overthrow Colombian President Álvaro Uribe’s U.S.-backed government, the U.S. Treasury Department said in a document placing sanctions on the three. The United States and Europe have blacklisted the FARC, as the rebel group is known, as a terrorist organization. The group is widely reviled in Colombia for carrying out kidnappings and assassinations. . .

American officials said that in addition to the three Chávez aides who were named Friday, they know of other figures close to the Venezuelan leader who have helped the FARC. Colombian authorities have identified two of them as Gen. Cliver Alcalá and Amilcar Figueroa, who has had a role in organizing Venezuelan civilian militias.

Words fail me.